Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, February 08, 2012 08:00 AM | Comments: 11
Analysis, Posts
From 2007-10, the Phillies had a .573 overall winning percentage despite going 100-101 in eight combined Aprils and Junes. Last season, they sprinted out of the gate and neither month was a problem.
Based on the way the 2012 schedule is set up, it is imperative that the Phils start strong — perhaps even stronger than last season’s 57-34 first-half record — and avoid the familiar April malaise and June swoon.
The post-All-Star break schedule is grueling.
To start the season’s unofficial second half, the Phils play 41 consecutive games and 53 of the first 56 against teams figuring to be in contention.
Included in that stretch are nine games with the Braves and six with the Nationals and Marlins. In fact, 33 of the Phils’ 54 meetings with Atlanta, Washington and Miami come after the break.
Building a comfortable NL East lead over the season’s first three months won’t be as easy as it would have been with Ryan Howard in the lineup. Despite his well-documented inefficiencies, Howard is still capable of carrying an offense for two weeks in a way that Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix are not.
With Howard out of the lineup until perhaps mid-to-late May, Wigginton and Nix will be much more than just role players.
It is believed that Wigginton will see the bulk of time at first base and Nix and Mayberry will platoon in left field, but all three men can play both positions. In a perfect world, Jim Thome should also see a game per week at first base.
Pitching will lead the Phils against a slew of weak first-half opponents (12 games vs. the Mets, seven vs. Pittsburgh, seven with San Diego, six with the Cubs, three with Baltimore and Minnesota, two with Houston), but the offense can’t sputter in the early-going, allowing inferior teams to stay in games in hopes of stealing bullpen victories. Anything less than a 26-15 record against these flawed foes would be a disappointment.
Fortunately, Ruben Amaro has designed a deep team built to play specifically to certain players’ strengths.
Nix, lifetime, has hit .253 with a .451 slugging percentage against righties and .181 with a Wilson Valdez-esque .271 slugging percentage vs. lefties. But because of the many platoon options at first and left, he’ll likely face fewer lefties than Greg Dobbs ever did.
On the flipside, Wigginton gets on base four percent more and has an OPS 64 points higher against lefties than righties.
The right-handed Mayberry hit .250 with a .785 OPS against righties last season and .306 with a .953 OPS vs. lefties. He faced 56 more righties than lefties, a split we can expect to see reversed.
If Nix faces only righties and Wigginton and Mayberry see as many southpaws as same-handed pitchers, all three should enter the break with nice numbers.
Amaro’s low-priced moves have set the Phillies up to succeed in the short-term against weak competition. And it will need to play out that way, because once Howard gets his legs under him, the schedule doesn’t give the Phils a chance to relax.
11 CommentsPosts: 0 Alex
Why will Nix see more time against righties than Mayberry, again? Mayberry has better numbers! Nix should get a game or 2 a week at most – giving Mayberry and Victorino (shifting Mayberry to center) a day off, but otherwise should see pinch hitting only – he had a good year in 2010 doing just that. There’s a reason why he’s not a full time starter…
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:57 AM on February 8, 2012Posts: 0 Don M
Look at all those empty seats in the picture of Nix!!
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:30 AM on February 8, 2012Posts: 0 BART SHART
Mayberry may be the real deal and should get a lot of playing time. He could be our centerfielder of the future, as well.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:32 AM on February 8, 2012Posts: 308 EricL
Proceed with caution, kind sirs.
I would not be surprised in the least if Mayberry were to regress to what he was for the first 5 years of his professional career, rather than what he was this past one.
His 2011 MLB OPS was 16 points higher than his highest OPS in any minor league season. That, my friends, should not be comforting. I would love for him to have turned a corner and be the 2012 version of the 2008 version of Jayson Werth or something, but I’m just cautioning that we might not get our hopes too high, just yet.
Better to be pleasantly surprised than sorely disappointed, in my opinion.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:41 PM on February 8, 2012Posts: 643 Manny
Mayberry’s improvement is tangible; his numbers are legit. In 2009 his strikeout rate was 38.3% in the big leagues (got 60 PA); in 2011 his rate went all the way down to 18.6%. Plus, if you’ve been watching Phillies games at all, it’s easy to see the difference. He’s no longer a fastball-only hitter… he identifies pitches way better now and is being more patient at the plate (walking more). This guy SHOULD be playing more often than any of the other “fill-ins” once the season starts (mostly LF and 1B).
“Despite his well-documented inefficiencies, Howard is still capable of carrying an offense for two weeks in a way that Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix are not.”
Guess what? JMJ can do that, too. In fact, he did it last year… and for more than 2 weeks. Per Fangraphs: “After returning from AAA on July 5, Mayberry posted a wOBA of .408 and a wRC+ of 160 with 12 home runs in 163 at-bats. Over the same period, Howard hit 16 home runs in 258 at-bats, but his wOBA was .353 and his wRC+ was 122.”
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:48 AM on February 8, 2012Posts: 0 Mazinman
Mayberry impressed me a lot last year. He did exactly what a player who is sent back to the minors should do. He got better in order to make sure he would get the most out of his next opportunity. He is in a really good position to take that Left Field job full time if he continues to work hard.
I got a feeling that Thome will end up playing first base more than once a week. Out of all the options he is, by far, the best offensively and he is Charlie’s boy. If he is truly serious about working hard on fielding and can play anywhere near serviceable first base he will be there once a series at least.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:07 PM on February 8, 2012Posts: 1202 Brooks
Somehow my posts have been not been making it.
I think first base can and should be covered by Mayberry, Nix & Thome (honestly, as little Thome in the field as possible).
LF should be covered by Mayberry, Nix, Pierre, Brown and Wiggy.
Lets face it, when Poly goes down, Wiggy has to cover the IF – I don’t know who else is covering IF because the Chance that Utley & Jroll head to the IR for a bit is true too.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:29 PM on February 8, 2012Posts: 0 Dave L
Mayberry needs to be in this anemic offensive lineup everyday, regardless of where he plays. I believe given the chance, he is likely to be the best overall offensive player the Phils have. He is above average defensively and can steal and run the bases. I can’t believe there is still doubt about Mayberry and what he can do at this point as opposed to hoping Dom Brown and some of the other off season acquisitions will ever contribute. As far as Howard coming back, I’m confident it won’t really matter that much. All we need is consistent production in his place.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:03 PM on February 8, 2012Posts: 0 schmenkman
Dave,
1) “this anemic offensive lineup”
For the last 2/3+ of the season last year (i.e. after Utley replaced Valdez/Orr/Martinez), the Phillies had the highest-scoring offense in the league, with among the fewest games with 3 runs or less.
Changes from that lineup:
- full year of Pence
- no Howard to start with
- no more Ibanez and his .707 OPS
- better offense off the bench
2) “I can’t believe there is still doubt about Mayberry and what he can do at this point ”
Well, I think this stems from the fact that he’s had like 3,000 at bats as an average hitter, and 180 at bats as a very good hitter.
So did he really change his swing enough to turn a corner and become a much better hitter? It’s possible. But there is certainly room for doubt.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:15 AM on February 9, 2012Posts: 1202 Brooks
@Dave, you make 1 valid point – Mayberry needs to be in this lineup.
I really don’t think anyone really doubts what he can do but the off season pickups look better than we’ve seen. Regarding the offense? 102 wins, most runs scored after the AS break – and guess who was a key part of that offense – #6. Those are the facts friend. This offense is better with Howard in the lineup, no question.
Posts: 1989 Lefty
It’s possible JMJ could fall victim to the “Sophomore Jinx”. If you don’t believe in it, if it didn’t happen to quite a few players, there wouldn’t be a name for it. Mayberry was not a rookie last season, but it was the first time he played more than 39 games so it could be considered his first full season. ( sort of ) That would make this his sophomore season, so it is entirely possible he could fall victim to the jinx. Remember the superstar that Jason Heyward was supposed to be after his rookie season? Look what happened to him last year. Heyward will bounce back, and if JMJ works hard, he can too. Or maybe, just maybe, he works hard enough, gets a little lucky, and avoids the jinx completely. That’s what I’m hoping for.
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Lefty commented on the blog post CSN’s Jim Salisbury Talks Hamels on 97.3 ESPN FM 19 minutes ago · View
I have been reading that waiting for the start of the season to extend Hamels allows them to keep under ( or close to) this year’s threshold. Hope that’s the reason for the delay.
Can anyone verify that?
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The Valdez trade was tough for all his fans, I get that. I will miss his rocket arm. But I applaud RA Jr. for acquiring 26 year old Jeremy Horst. At some point he has to bring in some youthful guys that may be ready to make the jump soon. He has invited a good [...]
Lefty commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s 47 minutes ago · View
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Jay Floyd commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s 1 hour, 25 minutes ago · View
Good stuff, Corey. I especially like the Seid-notes.
Baseball changes through eras..it really does.
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2012 Phillies SalariesCharlie Manuel
$3 million
Cliff Lee
$21.5 million
Ryan Howard
$20 million
Roy Halladay
$20 million
Chase Utley
$15 million
Jonathan Papelbon
$11 million
Jimmy Rollins
$11 million
Cole Hamels
$9.5 million
Shane Victorino
$9.5 million
Joe Blanton
$8.5 million
Hunter Pence
$6.9 million
Placido Polanco
$6.25 million
Ty Wigginton
$4 million
Carlos Ruiz
$3.7 million
Jose Contreras
$2.5 million
Kyle Kendrick
$2.45 million
Jim Thome
$1.25 million
Laynce Nix
$1.15 million
Dontrelle Willis
$850,000
Brian Schneider
$800,000
John Mayberry
$414,000
Vance Worley
$405,000
Antonio Bastardo
$405,000
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