Posted by Corey Seidman, Tue, January 31, 2012 02:10 PM | Comments: 35
Posts
Ordinarily, complaints about a one-year, $1.15 million deal would be silly. But when you consider how Chad Qualls’ presence will affect the short-term growth of Michael Stutes, Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, the Phillies’ Tuesday signing of the 33-year-old journeyman reliever carries with it as many negatives as positives.
At some point, you need to see what the young guys have.
The Phillies did that with Stutes in 2011 out of necessity, and only because he immediately succeeded did they continue to put him in high leverage situations. The (good) problem with having such lofty team expectations is that you cannot give young players on-the-job training. If the Phillies were the Pirates, or even a team like the Reds, Domonic Brown would probably be working through his troubles at the major-league level.
The same goes for the Phils’ young crop of relievers, which doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A.
Stutes showed at age 24 that his fastball-slider combo is good enough to miss bats in The Show.
De Fratus stormed through the minors, dominating at every level and deserves a spot on the Phillies’ Opening Day roster.
Schwimer struggled in the majors, but he too sped through the minors with high-strikeout, low-walk rates and whatever assessment is made of his 2011 performance is incomplete based on the way he was used. At 25, Schwimer already understands and talks about pitching at an advanced level.
Aumont struck out 78 batters in 53 innings last season for Reading and Lehigh Valley and he’s probably the furthest one away.
It’s not that bringing in Qualls is a bad move. He has a rubber arm and a sinker-slider combo that induces plenty of ground balls (57.5% career GB rate). But since entering the league, 13 percent of Qualls’ fly balls have been home runs, a number only one reliever – Brandon League – has topped. And he’ll be pitching at Citizens Bank Park, a stadium which has only seen its home run percentage drop because of a rotation full of aces.
Unless the hops really go way Qualls’ way in 2012, he’ll again be a middling reliever worth 0.3 to 0.7 wins … which is fine for $1.15 million, and would be a welcome upgrade if he were stepping into the Danys Baez spot.
But Qualls won’t be used in that role. He’ll be used in one that takes opportunities away from the Phillies’ quartet of young, potential “stud” relievers.
The bullpen has been an organizational strength for the Phils in recent years and in order for the young righties to continue to progress they’ll need to pitch in high-pressure situations, not in the sixth or ninth innings of a blowout.
For more statistical musings from Corey Seidman, visit Brotherly Glove and CSNPhilly.com’s Phillies Talk. 35 CommentsPosts: 0 mike golub
i couldnt even finish your article because you start out with 2 mistakes
1) adding qualls will be fine there are always injuries to content with in the bullpen, stutes and bastardo will get their innings
2) if you think dominic brown is major league talent , youre wrong…ive seen enough of him, hes number one on the block if they can get good value for him..mayberry is fine in left and ibanez is still on the roster
try to be more positive man even though were in philly
thanks
Mike
Posts: 23 schmenkman
LOL – nice final paragraph after your #2.
Just checking — did you know that at age 23 last year, Brown already hit as well as the average major league left fielder?
Granted his defense needs work, and he probably never be great in the field, but he’s athletic enough that with work he’ll be passable, no worse than Luzinski, Burrell, or Ibanez.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:41 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 bob firster
ibanez is not on roster
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:52 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 285 EricL
I agree.
Let me add that you really should mention David Herndon when you’re talking about guys who are going to lose development time. Despite not being “home grown” he’s still young, improving, cheap and under team control. He’s basically a 26 year old version of today’s Chad Qualls. Except he costs ~$700k less.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:30 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 285 EricL
Whoops, I got sniped.
My “I agree” comment was toward Corey’s article, not mike glubglub there who obviously wouldn’t know a baseball if it hit him in the scrotum.
You complain about “mistakes” in Corey’s post and then have the audacity to say, “Ibanez is still on the roster?”
lol @ you, sir. lol @ you.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:32 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Mazinman
Developing young talent is fine when you have the flexibility to do so which is something that I do not think the Phillies have right now in the bullpen. They have one of the best to close games but what about the 8th? Contreras has injury concerns, Stutes is still young, Willis has not done this before, Bastardo had his shaky second half last year. I think that is a lot of question marks in the pen for a team that is aiming for a ring.
I don’t want to see young players work through their issues in the majors. I want to see wins.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:37 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 285 EricL
Oh, I also meant to disagree with this premise–”If the Phillies were the Pirates, or even a team like the Reds, Domonic Brown would probably be working through his troubles at the major-league level.”– in the original post, but then I got distracted by something even more stupid being said in the first reply.
My point is that dominant teams like the Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox are in an IDEAL position to slowly introduce young talent onto their rosters. If you have to bring in an unknown quantity, would you prefer to do so as a team battling for every game or as a team that has a comfortable margin over the nearest competitors?
Of course, it’s easiest to introduce young guys into your lineup if you’re an awful team, like the Marlins or Astros, but they’re the outliers. If you don’t have an awful team, yet still want to get your young guys some playing time, which type of team would you rather introduce them on, a mediocre team with a shot at a weak division or a Wild Card berth, or on a dominant team whose playoff position is all but secured?
I would strongly argue that the dominant team has more leeway to use players like that in semi-large roles. You’ve seen the Yankees to it as they introduced guys like Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner into their lineup despite their competing for a championship. The Red Sox have done the same with guys like Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury. It’s much more palatable using a few young, talented prospects on an every day basis if the rest of your team is dominant and extremely likely to make the playoffs than it is to try to do so on a marginally successful team.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:51 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 George
The Phils are introducing young guys. Last year, Mayberry, Bastardo, Stutes, and Worley were all introduced to regular roles. This year, despite the signing of Qualls, some others may join the club if only because a regular or two will either be injured or suck.
Flag commentPosted: 04:06 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Mazinman
Dominant teams can afford to introduce young players when they have something else on their team that helps make up for risk that young talent brings. For example, the Phillies have talented and experienced starting outfielders in Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino which allows you to be able to play a John Mayberry in left and see what he can do.
Before we can say “lets see what the kinds can do” we need enough stability in the bullpen to allow that while minimizing the risks. I would argue that the current Phillies bullpen does not have the leeway to allow more young talent without risk. You have your rock in the 9th in Papelbon but then you face some concerns with the rest of the bullpen between shaky performances, being new to the position, health concerns, or youth.. Yes, the trio of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels should be getting the bullpen a lot of rest but you can’t count on that every day.
There is a fine line that has to be walked between developing young talent and risking losses. We no longer have the 8th and 9th inning dominance of Madson and Lidge at act as our bullpen foundation. Now we have Papelbon in the 9th and who knows in the 8th. This is not the time to be experimenting with youth. This is why I favor Qualls.
Flag commentPosted: 10:12 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
NOT bringing in an experience, cheap, effective arm when you’re on a WS run is the mistake. Better to have a younger arm wait another year than to hand them the job this year and have them fail. Rethink, Corey.
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:45 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 285 EricL
Wrong.
Variance in the playoffs, my above posts, etc.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:51 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 DSizzle
I gotta disagree. I understand what you’re saying, BUT look at it this way…if you have the young guys & qualls & herndon, etc, they can fight it out, which actually adds to competitive development. At $1.1mm, it’s not like you can’t stomach qualls in mop up if the kids beat him out- Look what we paid baez to mop up. And relievers are the most inconsistent of any position from year to year (with some exceptions)…so a little extra insurance doesnt hurt. I think Ruben is pretty close to the worst GM in baseball considering the budget he’s had and the decisions he’s made (howard ext, lee trade, $40m for ibanez, polanco over beltre, baez, papelbon relative to the market, etc. etc etc) – but I have no problem with this one.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:47 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 George
Amaro made a good offer to Beltre and was turned down. Polanco was second choice.
And if people are talking about giving young guys a chance, Aumont wouldn’t be one of those guys if Lee hadn’t been traded. Another mistake: Ibanez signed for $36 million, not the $40 million you state.
Other than that, I agree that this was not a bad signing.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:55 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 DSizzle
My problem with the Beltre thing is 2-fold- 1, Amaro has the leeway and resources to go out & get who he wants, as evidenced by the halladay trade, the lee signing, the howard contract, etc. He didnt use that leeway to get beltre who i believe signed for only 1 year/$10m that year (even if im wrong he still should have got him). the 2nd problem i have is that he overpaid polanco as a plan “B” when it was clear he was old & in decline, not to mention (although it hasnt been an issue when hes healthy), he hadnt played 3B in years. I didnt like the logic. $40mm was an estimate…either way he grossly overpaid for ibanez. and no one can dispute that the lee trade was a bad one, aumont is the most uncertain of the 4 guys that the article mentions, and they are all huge question marks. Ramirez isnt even mentioned, and all i hear is concerning things about gilles. Amaro himself obviously regretted the trade.
Flag commentPosted: 06:32 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 George
While you may have some valid concerns about the prospects received in the Lee trade, DSizzle, it’s still too early to tell for certain. They’re all young, and may develop into very good players.
And you’re way off base on Beltre. The contract Amaro offered was more generous in terms of both salary and years than the one Beltre signed. If he didn’t sign for a better offer from Amaro, he wouldn’t have signed anything else the Phils offered.
Polanco may not be Beltre, but as a second choice, he’s worked out far better than the other guys available, and cost less than that clown who’d been playing for the Angels. He’s been such a great third baseman that I can’t even remember his name.
Flag commentPosted: 12:50 AM on February 1, 2012Posts: 587 betasigmadeltashag
Thank you mister hinsight, first, I know a lot of people complained about what Rual signed for when he signed, but if you really look at the economics of it, and dispite the overt bashing of hm he had a pretty good three years hear considering that he was dealing with a sports hrynea after a blazing start and had a good second half his second year. And really became a platoon guy his thrid year which was a contention of most that did not like the signing.
And all though I too think the Beltre would have been perfect, and the lose of Wreth would not have been a big deal because you would have had your RH bat. But he was asking for ridiculas money and coming off an off injured season. And He signed for one year for less money then RAJ offered.
And I guess he should have known that Poly would get hit in the elbow that would bother him for a year, must have been cause he was over the hill, and that a gold glove contender should not have been left at second base
Posts: 0 Face
Chad Qualls blows. There. It’s settled.
FACE
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:52 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 625 Manny
xFIP in the 2s and 3s in every one of the past five seasons; projected to pitch 65-70 innings in 2011 based on past performance; ground ball % better than Roy Halladay’s.
All for 1year/$1 million. SOLD.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:29 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 625 Manny
2012* not 2011
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:30 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Jack Nydick
Domonic Brown isn’t ready for anything above “A” ball; let’s not get carried away. He still has to learn how to play the field and how to hit. As far as the bullpen goes, you can expect at least 2 – 3 arm problems which will facillatate the bringing up of the young arms. How many closers did the Phils have to use last year? Your long relievers will hit a “dead” spot, and what happens when a starter has an early exit? Stop making a problem where one doesn’t exist.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:39 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 23 schmenkman
Like I said, his fielding needs to improve.
However he is already a solid major league hitter.
Avg MLB LF-er : .256/.320/.409 (.729 OPS, overall hitting stat wOBA at .320)
Domonic Brown: .245/.333/.391 (.725 OPS, wOBA at .322)
Not to say by any means that we should be satisfied with his current production, and at only 24, he should get better.
These were the starting left-fielders who were about equal to Brown as hitters in 2011 (by wOBA):
B. Gardner .330
A. Soriano .325
C. Ross .321
David Murphy .319
J. Bay .315
R. Rayburn .314
Followed by M. Brantley, J. Rivera, Ibanez, C.Crawford, Delmon Young, R.Ludwick, M.Prado, J.Pierre, V.Wells
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:46 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 285 EricL
Hey, Eric from the Asylum here. First time-long time.
Yeah stats and all dat, but you didn’t calculate hustle or baseball smarts or grit or energy into those stats and, as everyone who’s everyone knows, that’s what really matters. Just ask any of the sportz expertz on WIP SPORT RADIO! Bumonic Clown should really be playing T-Ball right now, working on his heart and hustle! He’ll never be half the player a true player with heart and hustling-grits is, like Craig Counsell. Rube should trade him for a bucket of balls and a Geno’s steak.
I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.
Peace.
Posts: 0 Ryne Duren
i totally agree eric
Flag commentPosted: 11:03 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
Dominic Brown may be the Jeff Stone for the new millenium.
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:42 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 brooks
Dipsy, if D Brown had a 1/3 of a season like Stoney did in 84, this town would go bonkers.
51 games, 27 sb, .362 BA, .394 OBP – those kinds of numbers would have everybody going crazy for D Brown!
Posts: 625 Manny
Brown will be fine. People were expecting him to have a Heyward-2010 season, forgetting that rookie seasons like that are more the exception than the norm.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:58 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
Sorry Corey – Totally disagree. No one “deserves” a shot at the majors. The Phillies window of opportunity is about to close and they need to go all out in stocking experienced MLB players for the bullpen and elsewhere. If Amaro can pick up a good experienced reliever on the cheap I am all for it. If he does not deliver then rotate him down and pick up one of the alleged studs. But from what I see none of these guys are sure winners. There will be injuries and opportunities but when there is value available you have to take it. Amaro’s job is to WIN, not give some kids a “chance”.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:14 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 delearyous
this deal says one thing. Contreras isn’t ready. you cannot have a ‘pen full of arms under 26. you have to have some vet leadership to bring those young arms along. i think qualls is a great signing. some of the “stunted” players could use another year of seasoning in the minors.
..and honestly, not to be your stereotypical pessimistic Philadelphia fan, but do people really think stutes and bastardo can replicate last season? any one of them could get rocked a few games in a row and be rattled for the rest of their career. it happens all the time. a guy like qualls has been through both really good and really bad years. i think he is a great fit.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:15 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Don M
I think moves like this … Willis… Pierre.. and others are best evaluated after the season.
Its tough to complain about adding a veteran bullpen arm, especially a guy with solid GB-rates … for $1.15 M
and I don’t think any of their roles are really determined yet… they took a chance on a guy for $1.15 M …. maybe because, like myself, they weren’t too impressed by the small sample size of Schwimer … or they are concerned that Stutes seemed to struggle as the season progressed (tired, probably/hopefully …. or did the league start to figure him out with more video, more times facing him, etc… possibly) .
Bottom line is that adding the puzzle pieces for low dollars . …those are smart baseball moves right now to give your team a safety net, and to tell the young guys they still need to show up ready to impress this spring. I like the move, but we’ll see after the season if it was a good one or not
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:36 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Psujoe
2.09 era at home 5.05 on the road. Yikes.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:35 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Jay from Leonardtown
Contrares “may be ready by opening day,” Blanton “may be ready,” which bumps KK to the rotation. Willis “should be an effective LOOGY…”
Without Qualls, that leaves 3 or 4 possible openings for the four ‘Pigs Pens to fight for in ST. I still think at least one makes the opening day roster in place of Contrares or Blanton, and another is likely to pull a Stutes this year. There are too many other ?’s in the pen to think the guys listed now will be the guys in the pen in a few months.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:05 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 2 jonnyboy
Should we ever complain about depth? We have 6 available starters, including 3 of the best in the game. We have a top-3 closer. we have bastardo, who IF he pitches like the first half of last year, can be lights out again. Then we have contreras, willis, qualls, stutes, and a nice cushion when someone gets tendinitis. Not to mention, Amaro has accumulated the most well-rounded bench since our World Series. This year we will have legitimate speed off the bench with Pierre and a legitimate big bat with Thome
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:55 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
Seems like Rube is going a little crazy with signings of relievers. However, Contreras is a question mark, Willis is a question mark. We dont know if Stutes will have the Sophomore Jinx. Perhaps he is loading up on more options and sort everything out during spring training and start of season.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:04 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 Jobin
Or … It’s just a depth signing? Doesn’t hurt to grab a guy like this as insurance. Nt all the kids are going to pan out and I’m not convinced Stutes is going to be a guaranteed stud in 2012. No one knows for sure. For a million bucks, give a GB guy a shot, see what he can do. Plus, insurance in case Contreras isn’t the same.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:44 PM on January 31, 2012Posts: 0 mick
Wow—since when can you have too many arms–especially in the pen—-let the spring competition settle things—-D Brown is so very young with lots to learn, but the kid has decent plate presence and tons of power–do not give up on him
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