Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Thu, February 16, 2012 08:00 AM | Comments: 15
Posts
It’s almost here. The grass may still be brown for most of the greater-Philadelphia region, but the sun is staying out longer. It is getting a little warmer. Baseball is almost here.
Oakland and Seattle each received a week head start on the Spring Training process reflective on their trip to Japan, where they open the season on March 28 in Tokyo. All other clubs, including our beloved Phils, will have their batteries report on Sunday.
Not everybody gets invited to big league camp: of course, the 40-man roster reports, but so do select non-rostered minor leaguers and veterans auditioning for a role on the big club. This year, the Phillies are inviting 18 non-rostered players to workout with the big club. Some figure to fit into the Phils’ immediate plans, while others have been invited to train as they prepare for the future. The majority of the players, veterans seeking another shot, will play on two-way contracts hoping they can catch fire or be the beneficiary of an injury. Or both.
Because they are reporting first, the first of two features will take a look at the pitchers the Phillies are inviting. Unfortunately for non-roster invitee pitchers reporting to Clearwater, the Phils already have 19 pitchers on the 40-man roster and a plethora of young, talented arms that will make it near impossible for any one of these pitchers to crack the roster for any period of time.
Preparing for the Future
Austin Hyatt
Austin Hyatt was the no. 15 ranked prospect in my colleague Jay Floyd’s ProspectNation feature. As Jay noted, while Hyatt, who turns 26 in May, has been a little older for each level he has played in, Hyatt has had nothing but success. A Double-A All-Star for Reading, Hyatt tallied a 5-1 record with a 2.78 ERA and a .221 BAA after the All-Star break. Hyatt’s continued success puts him on the shortlist to be on standby if there is an injury in the rotation. It would not surprise me if Hyatt earned one of the two remaining 40-man roster spots at some point during the season and made a spot start or more for the Phils.
Projected Role: Starter for the Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: B-. If Blanton is not ready, these odds increase to B. If Blanton and another starter are not ready, Hyatt is a slam dunk.
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: B+. The Phils, although relatively healthy, have used 8 or more starters the past three seasons. With Andrew Carpenter and Scott Mathieson out of the way and Vance Worley currently firmly entrenched in the rotation, the emergency starter title is up for grabs. Hyatt makes the most sense for that role.
If Something Goes Wrong…
Joel Pineiro
As discussed at the time he was signed, I felt Pineiro was a great depth signing. I just don’t think his present skill-set can outperform Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, or Austin Hyatt to win a starting spot and I would list almost every other righty on the 40-man above Pineiro in terms of filling the bullpen. If some doomsday injury nightmare happens, Pineiro will be nice to have around, but let’s hope it doesn’t get that far.
Projected Role: Iron Pigs’ Staff Ace
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: D-. The door isn’t completely shut and Pineiro’s veteran status helps with a manager like Charlie.
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: D. Pineiro needs at-least two starters and likely a few relievers to fight injuries or ineffectiveness to get his shot in red pinstripes.
Wild Cards
Brian Sanches
Sanches was developed in the Phils’ system and saw action in 30 games across 2006 and 2007. Sanches, 33, was very effective last year against righties for the Marlins, averaging over a K/IP and posting a .195 BAA. Sanches could be a useful piece out of the bullpen, primarily against righties. Sanches has better splits than Chad Qualls and his fastball/slider/sinker repertoire profiles well for Citizens Bank Park. It’s a relative long shot, but Sanches, to me, is the one veteran to watch in Spring Training to see if he can win a role in the Phillies pen.
Projected Role: Righty bullpen option for Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: D+, primarily for success against righties
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: C. Sanches should not be slept on. If the Phils need an immediate stopgap reliever to plug in for an injury, Sanches should be in the conversation.
Raul Valdes
Valdes, for me, is Sanches from the left side. Valdes, 34, was successful in 2011, in small samples, against both righties and lefties but had tremendous success striking out and retiring lefties. Valdes does not walk many batters and struck out over 12/9 IP. If there is one veteran lefty that could sneak up on everyone and make the Phillies out of camp, it is Valdes.
Projected Role: Lefty bullpen option for Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: D, primarily for success against lefties
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: C, primarily for left-handedness
Jeremy Horst
Horst was acquired from the Reds for Wilson Valdez on January 25 presumably to save about $600K for future moves. Horst could be more than the product of a salary dump, though, should Antonio Bastardo and/or Dontrelle Willis face injury or ineffectiveness. Horst faced only 69 batters in 12.1 innings in the Majors last year for Cincinnati and hitters hit .290/.348/.468 against him, but fared better in Triple-A. In Louisville, Horst posted a 2.51 ERA with 7.36 K/9 IP with a .211 BAA. Horst could be groomed to be an effective long-man: on 6 occasions in 2011, Horst pitched 3 innings or more for Louisville and posted a 0.83 ERA in those outings.
Horst is 26 and will need a strong spring to leapfrog Joe Savery and Jake Diekman as the 3rd lefty option coming out of camp.
Projected Role: Lefty bullpen option for Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: D primarily for left-handedness
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: C- primarily for left-handedness. Possible September call-up.
BJ Rosenberg
A product of University of Lousiville, BJ Rosenberg, 26, split 2011 as part starter, part reliever for Double-A Reading. Rosenberg appeared in 39 games and posted a .266 BAA and has averaged about a strikeout per inning while keeping walks and home runs low. Rosenberg’s success and versatility has probably earned him a role in the Iron Pigs bullpen for 2012 but will likely need a miracle to crack the Phils’ roster at any point in 2012.
Projected Role: Righty bullpen option for Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: F-
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: F. Sorry BJ, there are just too many other pitchers ahead of you that are already on the 40-man roster.
Allentown is Beautiful in the Summer
Dave Bush
Bush is about an exactly league-average pitcher over the last three seasons (0.3, 0.1, and 0.1 fWAR for 2009, 2010, and 2011). League average, for a veteran, won’t make the Phils. Bush struggled with Texas and with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate before turning it around in Lehigh Valley last season, posting a 3.91 ERA. Bush’s fastball/curveball set have lead to about a 40% flyball rate over his career and about 10% of those leave the yard. You can tell me until you are blue in the face the Bank plays neutral but I do not want to take my chances with those rates in a hot, Philly summer.
Projected Role: No. 3 starter for the Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: F-
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: F-. Even if Bush puts together a phenomenal year in Triple-A, there are too many guys in front of him to get a shot. See: Brian Gordon, 2011.
Scott Elarton
Elarton comes with an impressive pedigree: former first-round pick out of high school. But, that was in 1994, turns 36 next Wednesday, and Elarton has not played affiliated ball in the US since he posted an 8.24 ERA in 19.2 innings for Triple-A Charlotte in 2010. I also have a sneaking suspicion either he or a family friend routinely edits his Wikipedia page based on all of the superlatives currently on it.
Projected Role: Likely released out of camp
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: None
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: Zero
Pat Misch
When I saw the Phillies signed Misch to a minor league deal, I wondered why. Not why the Phillies would sign Misch, who is talented enough to be a Major League pitcher, but why a player like Misch would not choose to sign with a team where he might have a better opportunity to reach the Majors. Misch, 30, has been primarily been used in the Minors as a starter and a reliever in the Majors; he relies primarily on a sinker and change-up. Misch has pitched almost exactly to league average and is a Quadruple-A player. There are many other teams who could have used Misch effectively in the Majors this year but barring Misch leaping Savery, Diekman, and probably Horst, it is unlikely he will reach the Majors.
Projected Role: Either 4th starter in Lehigh Valley or secondary lefty option out of the ‘pen
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: F, primarily for left-handedness
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: F+, a strong Triple-A campaign could get the lefty to the big league club. But it probably won’t be enough.
David Purcey
Purcey saw action with Toronto, Oakland, and Detroit last year. The 6’4 lefty from the University of Oklahoma relies on a fastball-slider combo; Purcey had success in the high Minors and early in his career as a strikeout pitcher but has seen his strikeouts decline while his walks have increased. Purcey was one of many lefties stockpiled by the Phils. Like the others, he will have to leap a strong rookie crop already on the 40-man roster to get his shot to play in red and white pinstripes.
Projected Role: Main lefty option out of the ‘pen for Iron Pigs
Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: F, primarily for left-handedness
Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: F+, a strong Triple-A campaign could get the lefty to the big league club. But it probably won’t be enough.
15 CommentsPosts: 1860 Lefty
Great posting, very informative, thanks. I look forward to the second one.
I would hope that Horst, the lefty reliever turns out to be more than just a piece in a salary dump. Why offer a guy (Valdez) arbitration, settle it, and then trade him for nothing. If you were trying to cut salary, why not go to arbitration? If you win, you keep a fine back up, if you lose you can still trade him.
I like to root for guys with no chance, the ones that give it all they’ve got and take a shot anyway. It’s like the movie “Rudy”. Go get em’ Scott Elarton!
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:17 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 0 George
Arbitration would have been risky; Valdez could have won and gotten more than the Phils wanted to give him. That higher pay could also have made it more difficult to trade him.
A salary dump rarely brings back a player of any value, and given Valdez’ talent level, he wouldn’t have netted much anyway. You don’t get a spectacular prospect for an aging utility man.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:39 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 1860 Lefty
The Phils saved $930,000 by trading Valdez. If they lose arbitration, and his salary is now 1.2m they can still make the trade and pay the extra 300,000. Net net -they save $930,000
Flag commentPosted: 08:46 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 0 George
Not exactly. Paying Cincy $300,000 to take him is exactly like paying it to Valdez, so they’re still losing that money. Their final savings would therefore be $630,000.
Flag commentPosted: 01:17 PM on February 16, 2012Posts: 1860 Lefty
Are you sure George? I’m not.
First off – that number I used should have been $270,000 anyway not 300,000. I’m not a math whiz can you tell?
I can’t find the exact numbers but assuming the 930,000 settlement was close to a midpoint the risk was probably that he could make approx. 300,000 more- or 300,000 less, which is less than a minimum contract. I’m saying thats a risk I’d take on a player I have intention of shopping or making available if the right deal comes. My thinking is that there is no reason to settle under those circumstances.
It’s not like the risk the of losing to Hamels or Pence where it could cost many millions more.
Alright let me do this in print and see if you still disagree-
If Valdez wins arbitration and for example’s sake, say he gets 1,230,000
If you then trade him along with a cash value of $300,000
Then you recoup 930,000. I’m not understanding how that is wrong.
On the other hand, if you win and your intent is to make him available, maybe you get a better prospect, or multiple players. Be back in an hour or two.
Flag commentPosted: 01:43 PM on February 16, 2012Posts: 104 Ian Riccaboni
I would love to see Elarton get another shot, but it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards for him. Did you check out his Wiki page? It is pretty awesome. Lot of “Elarton was awesome on a bad team” stuff.
Thanks for the compliment, working on the part II as we speak.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:36 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 1339 Chuck A.
Is it possible to get an F- or an F+ ?? When I was is school an F was an F was an F..
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:29 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 1339 Chuck A.
Just a feeling…and not justbecause I’m a fan of Valdez’…..but I think that trade comes back to give the Phillies fits. Not saying that they won’t be successful this year. Just saying that not having Valdez will prove to be a problem for them. I really hope (there’s that word again) I’m wrong.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:07 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 264 EricL
Allentown is most certainly not beautiful regardless of the season.
I think the Phil’s are making a run at te Eastern League championship. Why else sign so many veterans to what are obviously minor league deals? We’re way past the point where depth for te potential injury or two is needed…some of Hesse guys were obviously signed with he expectation that they’re spending the year in the minors.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:22 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 104 Ian Riccaboni
Eric – Very interesting thought. Coca Cola Park is a nice place to watch baseball. Bias aside, it’s the finest minor league park I’ve ever seen. The Pigs made it to the International League title series last year; now that you’ve mentioned it, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were trying to build a winner down there. They averaged 9,249 fans a game last year, including some odd 10:30 AM starts last year. That’s a good catch and probably a lot of merit to it. Winning teams draw, although the Pigs did draw before they made the playoffs.
Also, as someone who was born, raised, and went K-12 in Allentown, it IS a beautiful city. Much better than Bethlehem!
Attendance Figure Source: http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2011/09/lehigh-valley-leads-minors-in-attendance.html?appSession=77288778920996
Flag commentPosted: 11:40 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 0 EricL
“Also, as someone who was born, raised, and went K-12 in Allentown, it IS a beautiful city. Much better than Bethlehem!”
Folks, let this be a lesson to you, if you’re educated in the Allentown school district you’re likely to turn into a delusional person incapable of objectively seeing the world around you (that is, if you manage to avoid the stabbings and shootings long enough to graduate!). I suppose if you travel to the westernmost outskirts of A-town it gets a little bit more habitable…almost to the point where it’s as nice as Bethlehem! CC Park, unfortunately, is in the Northeastern portion which is…meh. But the park itself is plenty nice and there’s lots of highway access so you can just zip right outta Allentown as soon as the game’s over. :-)
Flag commentPosted: 12:01 PM on February 16, 2012Posts: 95 therookie300
Coca-Cola Park is great place to go watch a minor league game. They have done an amazing job with that place. I can’t wait till they get the hockey arena built in downtown Allentown.
BTW, people who get shot or stabbed bring it on themselves. I live in Allentown and head into downtown Allentown several times a week and have never seen any of these types of crimes. The only place in Bethlehem I will go to is the Sands when I need to cure my gambling itch. I refuse to patronize the businesses that try to run entrepreneurs out of town.
Posts: 0 George
I doubt very much if any utility infielder would give any team fits. It’s not as if the Phils gave up an all star, and it’s not as if they can never find another mediocre player to replace him. He’s not even the only position player who has ever pitched. And surely, the few at bats he gets against the Phils probably won’t hurt them.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:27 PM on February 16, 2012Posts: 551 The Original Chuck P
Reading Elarton’s wiki page… wondering if/when they would point out that Scott may have possibly been rumored to have just missed out on a potential Cy Young vote.
What a joke…
The main player that the A’s received for Trevor Cahill is ranked one spot ahead of Trevor May on the BA top 101 list. Not sure if it wouldn’t have made sense for the Phils to make a run at him… he had a tough year last year but he was once the 11th ranked prospect in baseball a couple years ago and he’s only 24 years old (under control and cheap). Plus, the D-backs got a somewhat reliable lefty reliever in the deal (Craig Breslow).
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:38 AM on February 16, 2012Posts: 1860 Lefty
@Chuck A – I have the same feeling, but if that’s the way it goes down, I’m blaming it on you!! But I also “hope” you are wrong. And it’s okay for us to use that word. (-:
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:08 PM on February 16, 2012 Leave a Comment>> Create a new Phillies Nation account. >> Already registered with Phillies Nation? Log in here. >> Comment without logging in:
Name (required)
Email (will not be published) (required)
Leave a comment below
Please ensure your comments comply with our Comment Policy. .load-hide{display:none} NetworkPostsActivity Login to your Phillies Nation account to comment and access your Network dashboard.
Username:
Password:
Don't have an account? Create a new one here >>
Stark on 97.3 ESPN: Utley's Health, Blanton, NL EastThe 2012 Non-Roster Invites: Position PlayersPhillies Prospects Biddle & Schwimer Ready for SpringPhillies Tickets Remain a Hot Commodity Update: Soler on Phillies, Yankees RadarProspect Nation 2012: #11 OF Tyson GilliesAmaro on XM/Sirius: No Deadline for Hamels
betasigmadeltashag commented on the blog post Phillies Tickets Remain a Hot Commodity 50 minutes ago · View
Got my Sunday package tickets about a week ago waiting on my opening day and other random tickets to come this week it must be close GO PHILLIES
betasigmadeltashag commented on the blog post Stark on 97.3 ESPN: Utley’s Health, Blanton, NL East 54 minutes ago · View
I know a few of you on Philliesnation live by these guys talking, but I never really got Stark, baseball insider and all, I take whatever he says with a grain of salt. I have not listen to it yet cause I am at work and have not vol. But is it a shock that [...]
inexpensivedres commented on the blog post Stark on 97.3 ESPN: Utley’s Health, Blanton, NL East 3 hours, 32 minutes ago · View
ugg boots online UGG Classic Cardy Buy Genuine UGG Boots UGG Sale Cheap Bailey Button UGG .On the additional hand, if you happen to unable to obtain an acceptable property to exchange, you is not able to protect yourself from the tax bill.Still, you are obligated to repay the taxation only at that moment when anyone finally sell the fresh [...]
inexpensivedres commented on the blog post 2011 Phillies Nation Player Reviews 3 hours, 32 minutes ago · View
Louis Vuitton HandbagsReplica LV HandbagsLouis Vuitton OutletLV Bags StoreLV Outlet OnlineLouis Vuitton Handbags 2010 Sale Buy LV Handbags 2010Louis Vuitton LuggageLouis Vuitton Classic MonogramLouis Vuitton Classic Monogram
inexpensivedres commented on the blog post IronPigs Fall in Finals, New Life For Six 3 hours, 32 minutes ago · View
ugguggsugg bootsugg boots onlineugg boots outletwomens ugg boots outletUGG Nightfall Boots uggs boots cheapugg broome boots cheapugg highkoo boots on sale
Shop Fan Gear Unlimited for all your Phillies Gear on sale. Check out great deals on stadium seats with backs and great coupons at the Sports Unlimited Facebook page.
2012 Phillies SalariesCharlie Manuel
$3 million
Cliff Lee
$21.5 million
Ryan Howard
$20 million
Roy Halladay
$20 million
Chase Utley
$15 million
Jonathan Papelbon
$11 million
Jimmy Rollins
$11 million
Cole Hamels
$9.5 million
Shane Victorino
$9.5 million
Joe Blanton
$8.5 million
Hunter Pence
$6.9 million
Placido Polanco
$6.25 million
Ty Wigginton
$4 million
Carlos Ruiz
$3.7 million
Jose Contreras
$2.5 million
Kyle Kendrick
$2.45 million
Jim Thome
$1.25 million
Laynce Nix
$1.15 million
Dontrelle Willis
$850,000
Brian Schneider
$800,000
John Mayberry
$414,000
Vance Worley
$405,000
Antonio Bastardo
$405,000
Alliance Tickets Alliance Tickets is your source watching your favorite team live and all your MLB Tickets. We carry a huge selection of cheap Philadelphia Phillies Tickets, Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, and San Francisco Giants Tickets. Phillies Rumors & News > The Nation on FlickrNot Affiliated with Major League Baseball or the Philadelphia PhilliesPrivacy Policy | Contact Us
Switch to our mobile site Phillies NationLog InSign Up VisitRandom Member
View the Original article
No comments:
Post a Comment