Posted by Jonathan Nisula, Tue, February 07, 2012 12:45 PM | Comments: 24
Analysis, Opinion, Posts
Roy Halladay is on the mound. Everyone in attendance at Citizens Bank Park knows he is on today–that his stuff is good stuff today. The first three batters of the game look like they’ve never swung a baseball bat in their life as they flailed in vain at the perfectly placed pitches by Halladay. The next eight innings play out in similar fashion, with maybe a few seeing eye singles and a lone run on the scoreboard.
But there’s a problem. The home team hasn’t scored, even though the opposing pitcher has an ERA in the upper stratosphere.
Sound familiar? It seemed like this happened far too often in 2011, and never more apparent in Game 5 of the NLDS, when the Phillies were incapable of scratching off just one run against Christ Carpenter–who is an elite pitcher–when their own Roy Halladay pitched his ass off for them, allowing just a single run. It was a painful way to end the season, and a microcosm of the seemingly many times that Halladay–or any of the Aces–did not get sufficient run support.
The Phillies scored 4.4 runs per game in 2011, but just 3.84 behind Cole Hamels. And 3.97 behind Cliff Lee. They scored 4.78 behind Halladay, but combined the Phils only scored 4.2 runs behind their three aces, while scoring an average of 4.69 runs per game in all other games.
I thought this was interesting, so I investigated the other two pitchers in the top five of the Cy Young Award voting, and the results were not similar. The Dodgers scored 4.33 runs in games that Clayton Kershaw started, and just 3.88 in games he didn’t, while the Diamondbacks scored 4.58 runs in games that Ian Kennedy started, and 4.5 in all other games. Since it seems to be a Phillies-only problem, I turned my attention back to them.
Going a little deeper, the Phillies averaged 8.2 hits per game behind the aces, and 8.9 hits per game in the rest. This means that the Phillies were getting about the same amount of opportunities to score runs, but couldn’t capitalize as much. You would think that this means that they left more men on base, but that’s not the case. In games started by the aces, they stranded an average of 7 runners per game, but in other games, they stranded runners a little more, averaging 7.94 per game. They even struck out less in “aces” games than in other games–6.08 behind the aces and 6.66 in others. What this tells me is that the Phils’ offense was putting the ball in play more, but not getting good enough contact.
The cause of this could be one of many things. First, I think you have to figure out why this seems to happen to only the Aces on the Phillies, and not the other pitchers. A common theory says that if a guy like Halladay, Hamels, or Lee is on the mound, the offense becomes complacent, knowing that it doesn’t have to put up a ton of runs to win the game. Imagine being at your job, knowing that the guy next to you is going to get done 80% of the project you both are contributing to. Are you not likely to do only 20% of the work, even though it should be 50/50? It’s a mental thing, and something that is very real, even though it can’t be completely explained by numbers.
Another reason for this phenomenon could simply be coincidence. The numbers are not that far off, and the data compiled is from just one season. Maybe 2012 will be different, but for now, aces on the mound means less run production from this Phillies lineup and more frustration from fans that miss the high powered offense that the Phillies used to have.
24 CommentsPosts: 1989 Lefty
I don’t think it’s coincidence, nor do I think it’s complacency. I think it’s just plain bad luck. I’d love to see the Phillies BABIP included in the games in this comparison.
Oh and I can see into the future too. I predict Mr Schmenkman and Mr. EricL are about to tell you how much of this happened before May 23rd, and how much after.
I’m just playing guys :)
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:28 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 schmenkman
Below are BABIP, BA/OBP/SLG, and OPS:
4 aces: .281, .250/.319/.386, .705 (119 games)
others: .289, .260/.333/.416, .749 (43 games)
So a little due to BABIP luck, but also some better power (higher Isolated Power, or SLG-BA).
I’m surprised no one has suggested that it’s because Halladay typically faces the other team’s better pitchers. That’s true early in the year, but with off days, rainouts, etc. it quickly unravels. By the end of the year, the opposing pitcher slot faced by all the Phillies’ starters was about the same:
Halladay 2.9 average (meaning he faced the opposing team’s 4-5 starters almost as much as their 1-2′s)
Lee 3.0
Oswalt 3.1
Hamels 2.7
Worley 2.9
Kendrick 2.9
Blanton 2.4
Posts: 0 schmenkman
should be “…because the aces typically face…”
Flag commentPosted: 02:39 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 schmenkman
By the way, if you include Oswalt with the “others”, the stats are much more even:
Again, BABIP, BA/OBP/SLG, and OPS:
3 aces: .285, .254/.319/.393, .712 (95 games)
others: .280, .251/.327/.397, .725 (67 games)
Posts: 643 Manny
I think (or would like to think) that is luck, too. These guys are focused, they know what’s at stake, and they’ve been doing this for years (they’re veterans, mostly).
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:50 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 220 Bruce
It’s more likely “coincidence”. As everyone should know, one team’s “ace” pitcher usually draws the opposition’s best pitcher and the results are predictable (low scoring game). And we had three aces (at times four when Oswalt was healthy last season).
I don’t have the time to research last season’s stats for comparison of opposing aces and the Phillies’ problematic offense. Besides, statistics can be over-rated. Often numbers don’t add up or can be skewed in all sorts of way to back up or refute an argument. So many variables in a game that can affect the outcome such as “luck” (as one poster mentioned); a ball taking a bad hop; a costly error; an aggresive runner taking an extra base on a hit; a stolen base and so on.
Let’s keep in mind, that the Phillies’ ace-filled pitching enabled them to set a team record for wins in a season with 102.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:01 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 schmenkman
Having the highest-scoring offense in the league for the last 2/3 of the season, with among the fewest games with 3 runs scored or less, didn’t hurt either.
See above for which opposing slot in the rotation each starter faced last year. Not much difference among them.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:14 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 Garo
Did you control for the offense that these guys provide when they’re at the plate? Vs. the offensive production of other lineups? What about different catchers?
It’s a reach, but another variable to consider.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:08 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1989 Lefty
Schmenkman, Thanks for the numbers sir,
Eight points in BABIP can make a difference. It’s like the difference between Laynce Nix making the diving catch of his life, or not making it and the ball rolling all the way to the wall. A few of those could significantly change the SLG as well. Oh well, good thing he’s on our side now!
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:10 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1415 Chuck A.
I remember last offseason….after Cliff Lee was re-signed and leading up to the start of the season…a lot of peple on here (myself included) made comments suggesting that the Philles’ offense wouldn’t have to be pressured to score so many runs (a la 2008) because of this incredible starting staff. In other words, the Phillies could get away with winning a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games BECAUSE of the pitching. And, in a way it worked. 102 wins speaks for itself. So, in a way, this theory of “complacency” isn’t all that far-fetched.
But we all know that the regular season isn’t the playoffs….that it’s a completely different animal and that what works for the first 6 months doesn’t often work in the last month when it really matters.
I would hope, however, that with the recent bolstering of the bullpen and the bench that this issue has been properly addressed. Looks to me like Ruben feels the same way, understands the stats, and has taken action.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:14 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
Seems you have 1 Ace missing. Four Aces in a deck wheres Oswalt?
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:30 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 Jay from Leonardtown
I’m not sure I believe this, but, building on the 80/20 vs. 50/50 mental line of reasoning, would the opposing defense “try harder”? If a player in the OF knows that their team is unlikely to score many runs against one of the aces, does he go a little harder for that diving catch? If he knows he’ll get to tee-off on Blanton or KK, maybe he plays it safe and the ball drops in. That one run might not matter as much if you think you’ll be scoring 4 or 5 of your own.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:55 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1989 Lefty
I think that’s an excellent comment JFL. It’s almost like the opposite psychological effect as the suggested complacency on the Phils part. And it’s definitely possible.
O/T – If I may ask, are you in Leonardtown, Maryland? Just curious as I live near Baltimore, but do some work down there. Please don’t feel obligated to answer, I understand the desire to stay anonymous on public boards.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:52 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 308 EricL
I’m being lazy right now, so I’m not going to do the legwork myself, but I think you need to include more elite pitchers in the “others” column for this to even out. A sample size of two is insufficient to weed out statistical noise, I think.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:18 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 Joe
They scored enough to win 102 games. The key for the Phils will be to figure out how to find offense in the playoffs, when the matchups of the opposing team’s aces are made with predictability, and they won’t see the 4s and 5s that they can feast on.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:52 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 George
Comparing the “aces’ and “others” of the Phils with those of the Dodgers and Diamondbacks is totally invalid. How many great pitchers did either of those teams have? One. Naturally the hitting stats against four duds are going to be different than those against two duds, and three aces are probably not going to compare with one ace.
Another question I have concerns Worley. Is he considered an “other?” In most of his starts he pitched more like an ace, so maybe his stats should be figured with Halladay, Hamels, and Lee rather than with Kendrick and Oswalt.
You can skew the numbers any way you want, but I’m not buying any of it.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:52 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 47 Jonathan Nisula
I wasn’t trying to skew anything, George
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:13 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 George
I’m sure you weren’t trying, but you did skew them. You can’t average four “others” with only two “others” and get accurate results. Whether you realized this or not I have no idea, but in my mind that fact alone tips the numbers toward your argument. You should do more research and make comparisons that are more balanced before you start claiming definitive results. You may not think so, but by picking just which numbers you use is, in itself, skewing things toward your own viewpoint..
Flag commentPosted: 12:38 PM on February 8, 2012Posts: 47 Jonathan Nisula
The sample size is definitely small, but there is a noticeable difference. We’ll revisit this after another year under the Aces’ belts
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:42 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1989 Lefty
Completely off topic, but the Oswalt thread is too far back. After reading today’s update on MLBTR, does anyone else get the impression that RoyO is being almost too picky?
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:02 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1202 Brooks
Realistically, does the offense “ease up” when the ace is on the mound?
The evidence shows they do, regardless of what we hear. For me, its hard to believe that a player could back off his intensity at that level but what do I know?
Posts: 0 cxl
the only error in this article is halladay getting out of the 1st inning unscathed. leadoff hitters batted .452 off him last year with a 1.052 ops. in both playoff games furcal got on and scored a run in each game. the offense bailed him out of the 3-0 hole he dug in game 1 but not the hole in game 5. he didnt allow a run after the first inning but that inning counts too. he didnt get the job done bottom line.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:19 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
Wait Halladay didn’t get the job done? One run in 8 innings with 7 strikeouts in a loss in Game 5 of the NLDS?
Oh ok.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:03 PM on February 7, 2012Posts: 0 schmenkman
Agree with Pat here.
Also, leadoff hitters hit .452 (1.052 OPS) in 32 at bats. That’s not much of a sample. The year before leadoff hitters had a .606 OPS. For his career they hit about the same as overall (.696 OPS leading off, .663 overall).
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:18 AM on February 8, 2012 Leave a Comment>> Create a new Phillies Nation account. >> Already registered with Phillies Nation? Log in here. >> Comment without logging in:
Name (required)
Email (will not be published) (required)
Leave a comment below
Please ensure your comments comply with our Comment Policy. .load-hide{display:none} NetworkPostsActivity Login to your Phillies Nation account to comment and access your Network dashboard.
Username:
Password:
Don't have an account? Create a new one here >>
'93 Phils Out-Disciplined "Moneyball" A'sCSN's Jim Salisbury Talks Hamels on 97.3 ESPN FMPhils Searching for Righty Slugger?Prospect Nation 2012: #13 RHP Michael SchwimerNick and Casey Boy from "Preston and Steve" Joining Phillies NationWeek In Review - Truck Day, PN TVPhillies Equipment Truck Heads to Clearwater Lidge: Most Important Season in Phillies History?
Lefty commented on the blog post CSN’s Jim Salisbury Talks Hamels on 97.3 ESPN FM 19 minutes ago · View
I have been reading that waiting for the start of the season to extend Hamels allows them to keep under ( or close to) this year’s threshold. Hope that’s the reason for the delay.
Can anyone verify that?
Lefty commented on the blog post Phils Searching for Righty Slugger? 36 minutes ago · View
The Valdez trade was tough for all his fans, I get that. I will miss his rocket arm. But I applaud RA Jr. for acquiring 26 year old Jeremy Horst. At some point he has to bring in some youthful guys that may be ready to make the jump soon. He has invited a good [...]
Lefty commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s 47 minutes ago · View
The 93 team was so much fun to watch because of the style they played. Smart management, smart players, always kept you on the edge of your seat because you knew that at any time they could manufacture excitement. I believe Jim Fregosi does not get the credit he deserves. Even Nails was considered an [...]
remotti became a registered member 1 hour, 8 minutes ago · View
Jay Floyd commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s 1 hour, 25 minutes ago · View
Good stuff, Corey. I especially like the Seid-notes.
Baseball changes through eras..it really does.
Shop Fan Gear Unlimited for all your Phillies Gear on sale. Check out great deals on stadium seats with backs and great coupons at the Sports Unlimited Facebook page.
2012 Phillies SalariesCharlie Manuel
$3 million
Cliff Lee
$21.5 million
Ryan Howard
$20 million
Roy Halladay
$20 million
Chase Utley
$15 million
Jonathan Papelbon
$11 million
Jimmy Rollins
$11 million
Cole Hamels
$9.5 million
Shane Victorino
$9.5 million
Joe Blanton
$8.5 million
Hunter Pence
$6.9 million
Placido Polanco
$6.25 million
Ty Wigginton
$4 million
Carlos Ruiz
$3.7 million
Jose Contreras
$2.5 million
Kyle Kendrick
$2.45 million
Jim Thome
$1.25 million
Laynce Nix
$1.15 million
Dontrelle Willis
$850,000
Brian Schneider
$800,000
John Mayberry
$414,000
Vance Worley
$405,000
Antonio Bastardo
$405,000
Alliance Tickets Alliance Tickets is your source watching your favorite team live and all your MLB Tickets. We carry a huge selection of cheap Philadelphia Phillies Tickets, Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, and San Francisco Giants Tickets. Phillies Rumors & News > The Nation on FlickrNot Affiliated with Major League Baseball or the Philadelphia PhilliesPrivacy Policy | Contact Us
Switch to our mobile site Phillies NationLog InSign Up VisitRandom Member
View the Original article
No comments:
Post a Comment