Sunday, February 19, 2012

How This Offseason Helped the Phillies More Than You Think

Posted by Jonathan Nisula, Thu, February 09, 2012 05:41 PM | Comments: 19
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts

Pujols and Fielder have gone West. (PHOTO AP)

We know about the moves the Phillies made themselves to improve, like the additions of Jonathan Papelbon, Ty Wigginton, and Laynce Nix, but moves, or lack therof, by other teams have helped the Phillies just as much.

Albert Pujols: 10 years, 240 million. Gone. Prince Fielder: 9 years, 214 million. Gone. Both of these players now call the AL their home, which means that the Phillies will not have to deal with either of them for more than one series each year, and not in the playoffs, unless it’s the World Series.

Think about the effect this has on the overall quality of competition the Phillies pitchers will have to face.  They will play the Cardinals and Brewers a total of 14 times in 2012, and none against the Angels or Tigers.  Fielder hit an incredible .440/.533/.560 against the Phillies last year, while Pujols hit .356/.408/.533. Now that both of them are gone, the Phillies pitchers can breathe a sigh of relief.

This means that guys like Kyle Kendrick, David Herndon, Michael Stutes, and Vance Worley–all guys who are young (except Kendrick)–can pitch with more confidence when facing the Brewers or Cardinals because of the absence of Fielder and Pujols. Confidence is a powerful thing, just look what it did to Kendrick last year.

Another effect that the absence of these these two power hitters will be the Cy Young race. Aside from the Phillies seeing these guys less, the rest of the NL will as well, meaning that Clayton Kershaw, Ian Kennedy, all the pitchers on the Giants, and others, will theoretically have even better stats in 2012. Here’s a look at each of the 2011 Cy Young candidates career numbers and career numbers against Pujols and Fielder:

As you can see, with the exception of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, each pitcher’s career OPS against is lower than their OPS against when facing either Fielder or Pujols. Both Halladay and Lee have the two best numbers against Pujols, but the two worst against Fielder. None of that will matter, anymore, however. We can expect to see a multitude of good pitching in the NL this year, with possibly even another record breaking year for the pitchers.

But there’s more. With Fielder and Pujols in their respective lineups, the Brewers and Cardinals had a guy that made everyone around him better. Guys like Casey McGehee, Corey Hart, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus all benefited from having the big guys in the lineup. Whether pitchers would give attack them with more strikes in fear of giving up a walk, or whether having Fielder and Pujols in the lineup just gave them more confidence, these guys were unquestionably better players with Fielder and Pujols.

But now without them in the lineup, the ripple effect will hurt every player on the roster. It’s easy to play alongside an MVP candidate, but not so much when that production must be made up once they’re gone. If I had to guess, I’d say that the Brewers and Cardinals will go from being the top two teams in in NL Central to being maybe the 2nd and 3rd best teams. One of them, if not both, will not make the playoffs in 2012, and the absence of the two big first basemen will make the regular season a whole lot easier for not only the Phillies, but the rest of the NL.

The Phillies three aces just got a little more “ace-ier”, and the Phils offensive woes just got a little easier to deal with.

19 Comments  View Comments: Newest FirstOldest First Expand AllExpand Newest  

Posts: 0 ESURUGBY

except the nationals and marlins will be significantly better and we will be playing them much more than the cardinals and brewers.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:58 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen

What’s your idea of significant?

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:30 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Berzerker

Rest easy son. We won’t be facing Jose Reyes any more than we usually would.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:14 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Steve Rush

I appreciate this research and as interesting as these numbers are, we are still talking about 2 total players leaving the NL. I am not completely sold that these two players will have that much of a dramatic affect on the Phillies SEASON. Will the pitchers have affected and possibly better numbers? OK maybe, but once again we are talking about two batters and a total of what maybe 30 at bats….

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:49 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 0 BART SHART

Could help in the post-season, but in the regular season, not that significant.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:44 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Jonathan Nisula

I think it will still help them a lot in the regular season. Even if they don’t have the play them as much as teams in the NL East, the overall competition of the NL goes down with these guys leaving.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:52 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 1989 Lefty

I was relieved to hear that Fielder did not go to the Nationals, for sure. Looks like Cliff Lee probably was too!

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:08 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 47 Jonathan Nisula

I think we all were. I would go as far as to say they would have legitimate playoff chances if they snagged him.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:40 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Eaglebenny

If it weren’t for the fact that Howard has had shit years and is hurt, 2012 could have found him starting at first base in the All-Star game.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:18 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 47 Jonathan Nisula

Probably not starting, but excellent point Benny

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:38 PM on February 9, 2012

 

Posts: 0 bacardipr05

Howard is fine saw jumping hurdles on the track…..

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:20 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Grismundo

And here I was hoping he would get “fat” again and be good like he used to be.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:22 AM on February 11, 2012

 

Posts: 220 Bruce

Sure, it may help the Phillies not having to face the two premier power hitters in Pujols and Fielder. However, I look at it from another perspective. The quality of competition in the NL goes down. AL gains two more great power hitters over to their side. It is the AL fans’ delight to see two of the best hitters in the game coming to their ball park. The NL fans are all the more poorer in not having such players to watch.

That’s sad and another thought; The competition in the All Star game to decide which team will have the home field advantage in the World Series could decidedly be in AL’s favor with the addition of Pujols and Fielder.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:49 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 220 Bruce

I should clarify the above sentence regarding the All Star game so there be no confusion. The home field advantage in the WS goes to the team whose league won the All Star game. That’s better. And the AL would have a great advantage with Pujols and Fielder in All Star game. Even though they are both 1st basemen, both surely will get to play just not at the same time.:-)

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:03 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

The All-star game will go from, say, Cabrera (AL) vs. Pujols (NL), as it may have been in the past, to Pujols (AL) vs. Votto (NL) as the starters.

When the reserves come in, instead of Teixeira or AGon (AL) vs. Votto (NL), it may now be Fielder (AL) vs. Howard (NL).

There is undoubtedly some improvement there, and the AL has gained in depth. But with AGon in Boston and Teixeira in NY, it’s not clear that Pujols and Fielder would necessarily get into the game. Votes in 2011: AGon 3 million, Tex 2.4, Cabrera 1.8

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:56 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 0 George

I too do not think the absence of Pujols and Fielder will make much of an improvement in the Phils’ season. They just don’t face the Cards and Brewers enough for those two players to make much of an impact on 162 games. Cincinnatti or Chicago, however, might benefit.

What WILL affect the Phils are the additions made by some of the NL East teams. Florida added Buerhle, or however the heck his name is spelled, and could get more from Johnson, the Nats added Gonzales and will get a full season of Strasburg, and the Braves will have some new young arms with high upsides. I also suspect that Werth won’t be the dud he was in 2011 and that Jose Reyes will improve the Marlin’s lineup.

People complain constantly about the Phils’ offense and their complaints about it should only get worse when the team faces these new pitchers. Particularly if the back end of the Phil’s rotation gets hit hard by these East teams’ improving lineups.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:52 AM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 0 George

I just noticed the photo caption, and have to point out that Fielder did not go west. Detroit is east of Milwaukee. If he went first to Albuquerque, maybe you’d be correct, but even then, only sort of.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:47 PM on February 10, 2012

 

Posts: 1 thedudeabides

I’d take my chances with anyone Roy, Cliff or Cole have to face in any lineup. But those two in the AL will certainly help Heavy B and Vance.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:46 PM on February 12, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Dave

ANy chance they will change the All Star game back to the way it was? The team with the best record should get home field advantage…the current rule is as stupid as stupid gets.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:24 PM on February 13, 2012

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Lefty commented on the blog post CSN’s Jim Salisbury Talks Hamels on 97.3 ESPN FM   19 minutes ago · View

I have been reading that waiting for the start of the season to extend Hamels allows them to keep under ( or close to) this year’s threshold. Hope that’s the reason for the delay.

Can anyone verify that?

Lefty commented on the blog post Phils Searching for Righty Slugger?   35 minutes ago · View

The Valdez trade was tough for all his fans, I get that. I will miss his rocket arm. But I applaud RA Jr. for acquiring 26 year old Jeremy Horst. At some point he has to bring in some youthful guys that may be ready to make the jump soon. He has invited a good [...]

Lefty commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s   47 minutes ago · View

The 93 team was so much fun to watch because of the style they played. Smart management, smart players, always kept you on the edge of your seat because you knew that at any time they could manufacture excitement. I believe Jim Fregosi does not get the credit he deserves. Even Nails was considered an [...]

remotti became a registered member   1 hour, 7 minutes ago · View

Jay Floyd commented on the blog post ’93 Phils Out-Disciplined “Moneyball” A’s   1 hour, 25 minutes ago · View

Good stuff, Corey. I especially like the Seid-notes.

Baseball changes through eras..it really does.

Subscribe and Share Minor League NewsProspect Nation 2012: #13 RHP Michael SchwimerProspect Nation 2012: #14 OF Larry Greene Jr.Prospect Nation 2012: #15 RHP Austin HyattProspect Nation 2012: #16 2B Cesar HernandezPhillies Nation Interview: Roman QuinnProspect Nation 2012: #17 2B Harold Garcia Recent CommentsLefty: I have been reading that waiting for the start of the season to extend Hamels allows them to keep underLefty: The Valdez trade was tough for all his fans, I get that. I will miss his rocket arm. But ILefty: The 93 team was so much fun to watch because of the style they played. Smart management, smart players, alwaysJay Floyd: Good stuff, Corey. I especially like the Seid-notes.Baseball changes through eras..it really does.schmenkman: So for about the same money in 2012, and quite a bit more money in 2013, the Phillies:1) get slightsteve: I definitely agree Chuck (with most ridiculous comment of the day) but more so about having Laynce Nix and Wiggington.Don M: I highly recommend reading "Three Nights in August" after you get done with Moneyball ... I love bothsteve: crickets......crickets.......really though lolJonathan Nisula: I'm actually reading Moneyball right now. I'm a little more than halfway throughschmenkman: (we hope)RSS

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2012 Phillies Salaries 

Charlie Manuel

$3 million

 

Cliff Lee

$21.5 million

 

Ryan Howard

$20 million

 

Roy Halladay

$20 million

 

Chase Utley

$15 million

 

Jonathan Papelbon

$11 million

 

Jimmy Rollins

$11 million

 

Cole Hamels

$9.5 million

 

Shane Victorino

$9.5 million

 

Joe Blanton

$8.5 million

 

Hunter Pence

$6.9 million

 

Placido Polanco

$6.25 million

 

Ty Wigginton

$4 million

 

Carlos Ruiz

$3.7 million

 

Jose Contreras

$2.5 million

 

Kyle Kendrick

$2.45 million

 

Jim Thome

$1.25 million

 

Laynce Nix

$1.15 million

 

Dontrelle Willis

$850,000

 

Brian Schneider

$800,000

 

John Mayberry

$414,000

 

Vance Worley

$405,000

 

Antonio Bastardo

$405,000

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