What if the First Base Platoon Fails?

Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, March 07, 2012 08:00 AM | Comments: 28
2012 Spring Training, Acquisitions, Analysis, Injuries, Offseason, Opinion, Posts

The Nix/Wigginton platoon might not struggle like Ryan Howard in early-May of 2011, but it won't flourish like Howard in mid-June.

I think we’re all getting a bit too comfortable with the idea of Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix playing first base every day while Ryan Howard is out.

With Howard’s latest setback — which I’m glad we all realize now is a setback, even if the word “setback” isn’t used — the possibility exists that The Big Piece doesn’t return until late-June, early-July, perhaps even after the All-Star break. Just think about it… it’s an infection on an incision on his Achilles’. He’ll be in a walking boot for the next 10-or so days, and after that you’d imagine the rehab process either starts over or moves slower than it was in the opening days in Clearwater.

What it means is a whole lot more Wigginton and Nix than we originally anticipated.

Now, I for one have made it clear that I’m a believer in the first base platoon, that it’s a good idea to put two players in situations where they can succeed and refrain from playing them in scenarios where the degree of failure is high.

But what if Wigginton, who hasn’t truly had an above-average offensive season since the year the Phillies won the World Series, is just no longer effective at age 34? What if Nix, who had a .299 on-base percentage last season, doesn’t perform against right-handed pitching?

I know, I know… what if the moon were made of cheese… but these are legitimate questions. There is just as much likelihood in the failure of the first base platoon as there is of success. It’s a good idea on paper, but these aren’t exactly the best options against opposite-handed pitching.

Nix had a .475 slugging percentage against righties in 2011 but his OBP against them was .306.

Wigginton from 2009-11 hit .248 with a .700 OPS against lefties, numbers worse than the ones he put up against same-handed pitching.

What happens if one or both of these acquisitions turn into Wes Helms? When the Phillies signed Helms before the 2007 season, he was coming off of two very impressive campaigns as a part-time player in Milwaukee and Florida. He came to Philadelphia and made an out more than 70% of the time and slugged .368, or just a little bit higher than Wilson Valdez in 2010 and 2011.

If the first base platoon doesn’t work, you’d imagine action wouldn’t be taken until mid-May at the earliest. A lack of production in April would just be seen as an early-season slump, as an adjustment period. It would take something like six weeks for Charlie Manuel to stop giving these guys chances to build up confidence.

So what you’d be looking at is a situation in mid-May where John Mayberry shifts from left field to first base and Juan Pierre/Scott Podsednik begins playing three out of every four games.

Pierre is a nice piece, especially in a bench role for few relative dollars, but the Phillies’ everyday lineup isn’t really built to incorporate a player like him.

What would it even look like? My best guess would be: Rollins-Pierre-Utley-Pence-Victorino-Mayberry-Polanco-Ruiz-Pitcher.

No, batting Pierre second isn’t optimal, but that’s what I realistically expect Charlie Manuel to do. I mean, this is the same manager who gave Michael Martinez 98 plate appearances in the two-hole last season and made clear early in Spring Training that he’s looking for a greater emphasis on bunting.

I know what you’re thinking at this point… if the platoon flops, why not just move Mayberry to first and bring up Domonic Brown to play left field? But while that’s the easy option for a fan to make, it’s time to let it sink in that those who watch him every single day believe that Brown is not yet ready for everyday action. And even though it may seem hard to believe, Brown hasn’t yet had a full season at Triple-A. The best-case scenario for all parties involved here would be to leave Brown at Lehigh Valley all season and let him build up enough confidence so that when he returns to the majors, he really believes he can do it. Unless, of course, Brown just absolutely tears the cover off the ball and forces a call-up.

I’m not convinced the first base platoon will fail. But I’m not convinced it will succeed, either. I could see Wigginton and Nix flourishing as interchangeable parts in the six-hole just as easily as I could see either one being booed like Helms in the summer of 2007.

The point is, I think we’re all just a little bit too comfortable with the notion of the Phillies being OK with Ryan Howard out of the lineup.

There are two- to three-week periods during each season when any pitcher, lefty or righty, rookie or veteran, power or finesse, can retire Howard with ease. Periods like May 4 to May 20, 2011, when Howard went 7-for-56 with 23 strikeouts and drove in six runs in 16 games, struggling against lefties like Jorge De La Rosa, C.J. Wilson and John Lannan, nibbling righties like Ricky Nolasco and Jason Marquis, young power arms like Jhoulys Chacin and top-tier guys like Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Howard was awful during that 15-game span and the Phillies went 7-8.

But there are also periods where Howard carries the Phillies’ offense on his back the way a Wigginton or Nix cannot… periods like June 12 to June 23, 2011, when Howard went 15-for-36 with as many walks (8) as strikeouts, a good supply of power (five extra-base hits) and more RBIs (12) than games (11). And that stretch came against lefties like Jason Vargas and Doug Davis, top-tier pitchers like Felix Hernandez and (to a lesser extent) Anibal Sanchez and middling righties like Kyle Lohse. Howard was great over that 11-game span and the Phillies were 8-3.

The first base platoon might work, it might not. It was a good idea by Ruben Amaro to cheaply stem the tide until Howard returns by obtaining two players who should theoretically succeed.

But don’t let an interesting, efficient idea fool you into thinking that it can’t fail.

28 Comments  View Comments: Newest FirstOldest First Expand AllExpand Newest  

Posts: 0 Dave

When you say that, “the Phillies’ everyday lineup isn’t really built to incorporate a player like him…” Do you say that because Charlie doesn’t know how to put a lineup together, or because you don’t think Pierre is an everyday player anymore?

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:17 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mtuske

With Utley falling apart and Howard out till God knows when this offense could be bad. At least we got pitching.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:20 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

It could be bad, but it probably won’t be.

Once Utley returned last year, they had the highest-scoring offense in the league, with among the fewest games with 3 runs or less.

Changes from that lineup:
- will be without Howard for most or all of the first half
- full year of Pence
- no more Ibanez and his .707 OPS
- better offense off the bench

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:41 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 1314 Pat Gallen

I don’t see the offense as being “bad’. For long stretches last year, many of the regulars were missing and they turned out to have a halfway-decent offense.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:43 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mtuske

I agee to a point but we are relying heavily on Mayberry to perform at last years level, Thome’s ability to start and field and Utley to at least bat around 280 20hrs. That doesnt sound like much I’m just very skeptical of what Utley has left.

 Flag commentPosted: 08:50 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

Mtuske, you’re concerned that Utley will play worse than last year, or that he won’t be able to play any more than he did last year?

He started 100 of the 116 games after returning, including 8 that he missed with a concussion and unrelated to his knees. I think 130-140 is reasonable to expect from him.

When he did play, he was the 3rd best offensive second baseman in the league.

 Flag commentPosted: 08:57 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mtuske

I’m concerned he misses time like last year but without Howards bat in the lineup to hold the fort. If Utley bats .259 and slg 425 this year we are in trouble. No way aound it.

 Flag commentPosted: 09:08 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

Sorry, — I don’t see how.

 Flag commentPosted: 09:19 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

Meaning I don’t see how they will be worse than last year. These are the OPS’s they got from the positions in question last year:

LF .714
RF .807
2B .698
1B .838

First base will almost certainly be worse. I just don’t see how the others will be as good or higher.

 Flag commentPosted: 09:27 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

*how the others WON”T be as good or better.

 Flag commentPosted: 09:28 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mtuske

Chase utley
2010 – 275 slg 445
2011 – 259 slg 425
2012 – If the regression continues this year could be worse.

Mayberry – Had a career year. Will he go back to a career minor leaguer or mantain his performance. He has teased in the past.

Also our pitching was healthy all year and gave up the fewest runs of any team since I believe 86. That is also unsustainable. Halladay, Lee and Hamels all had career or near career low ERA’s.

 Flag commentPosted: 09:39 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 1365 Chuck A.

Well, the Phillies DO have options here. Wiggy and Nix along with JMJ and Thome and they SHOULD be able to patch this position together until Howard returns. But bear in mind that even when he returns he really won’t be anywhere close to 100 pct. for awhile. So we better get used to these guys cause we’re gonna see a lot of them this season.

Corey’s statement, “The point is, I think we’re all just a little bit too comfortable with the notion of the Phillies being OK with Ryan Howard out of the lineup.”…… is indicative of just how disgruntled we are as a fanbase about Howard in the first place. It’s almost as if we WANT other players to field that position BECAUSE of his failures. But we need to be reminded of just how effectively he can carry a team for stretches of time. Hopefully, the bench can do the job well enough so that we don’t need those stretches all that much.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:41 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 George

Anyone with a brain KNOWS that these guys are fill-ins and temps and won’t expect them to be a real force. I doubt if any true fan has a lot of confidence that these replacements “can’t fail;” but I also believe that even with poor production at first, the team has enough other plus players to battle for the division, particularly pitchers.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:34 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 1365 Chuck A.

Well one thing is comforting: If Chase Utley continues his “regression” we always have MiniMart to step right in.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:47 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mtuske

LOL

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:56 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 BART SHART

A lot rests on the success and shoulders of John Mayberry, Jr. I just hope Mayberry is the real deal and last year was not a mirage. I hope Mayberry does not turn into Dingleberry.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:32 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 621 Manny

I think JMJ will end up on 1st base most of the time. Cause out of all the options, he is the best player. Left field will be Nix/Pierre/Pod and maybe Brown if he exceeds current expectations. Wigginton will end up playing a lot of 3rd base to cover for Polanco and perhaps 2B to cover for Chase (though I worry about him fielding that position).

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:34 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Mazinman

I am not really sure what the point of this article is besides Corey wanting all of us to be scared. This is baseball, anything could fail at any moment. Ruben Amaro went about dealing with the situation the correct way and now there is nothing we can do about it except wait and see how it develops. I feel comfortable because I understand the logic behind the moves and don’t see the point in panicking.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:41 AM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 308 EricL

If it becomes necessary to play Mayberry at first every day due to the sucking of Nix/Wiggington/etc (or worse, if Nix/Wiggington suck AND Mayberry regresses to the guy he was the first 3000 plate appearances of his professional career rather than the guy he was the last 300), Domonic Brown has to be the every day LF.

He was more than adequate in his cup of coffee last season and has nothing left to prove at the minor league level. Sure, he needs to improve his defense, but the guy can work on that in the majors. Hell, he was better than Raul Ibanez last year, who was the worst defender in the entire damn league and posted a ghoulish .245 /.289/.419 slash line.

So, no, I’m not just going to say, “Hey those guys who watch him every day know better,” because that’s irrelevant. By that reasoning, who is anyone to criticize the Phils playing Martinez in the 2-hole on a regular basis, because, after all, the guy who makes the lineup gets to see him up close every day, while we don’t. That line of argument is just a weak appeal to authority, which is not at all rigorous.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:36 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 283 Corey Seidman

It’s not a line of argument, I’m not arguing that that’s the correct approach, it’s just the way it is. The organization didn’t want to bring up Domonic Brown in 2010 or 2011 but injuries to Shane Victorino both seasons and insistence from Charlie Manuel made it happen.

Ruben Amaro has been rather forceful this off-season about what the plan is for Brown, and this is the year where you really don’t expect it to change unless the Phillies are just ravaged by injuries at every position.

I’m not arguing that we should buy into that line of thinking, I’m explaining that that’s the way it is and for us to complain and scream for Brown is probably futile THIS season.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:29 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 308 EricL

Very well.

I like to tilt at windmills though, so I’ll continue to hope they do the right thing even though they have shown a tendency to do silly things.

 Flag commentPosted: 02:34 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 1901 Lefty

Corey you made me laugh when you said- “I know what you’re thinking at this point”

That was exactly what I was thinking.

I know it’s early, much too early too judge anything, but watching Pierre and Podsenik play the outfield thus far hasn’t been inspiring. At least Brown is showing he can hit.

IMO- Why wait for it to pass/fail? JMJ looks to me like our best first base option right now, or at least part of the platoon against lefties instead of Wigginton.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:06 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Jeff Dowder

Derrek Lee had a .982 OPS after being traded to the Pirates last season and is still a FA. It was a small sample size, but on a cheap contract I’d like him more that Wigginton/Nix.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:29 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Tommy

Why was Jim Thome’s name not mentioned once in this article?

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:43 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 Steve

My thoughts exactly!

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:23 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 bacardipr05

Whats Ross Gload doing these days? Anyways while i do understand the point of the article. One thing that RAJ and presumably Cholly did right is that they gave themselves a bunch of options. All the options though carry risk mentioned in the article. So basically they will have to figure whats the best option for them. Rather it be Mayberry, Thome, Nix or Wiggy. I dont believe Thome was bought up here to actually field many games. I think thats why his name was left out of the article. Its possible Cholly and i have a hard time believing this myself will go with matchups. As always we have Mini Mart that can take a few starts…

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:42 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 568 betasigmadeltashag

Here is on reason JMJ hit better last season then he did his first couple years, cause he listened to coaching and moved his hands down changed his stance and approach at the plate. Unlike the next coming of Roberto Clemente did when he got sent down, and after injuring his wrist. That is why Dom will be in AAA this year and why he is not getting a long look this spring, he does not seem to be coachable, “I’ve been batting this way my whole life and it worked so I am not going to change now”
And it is not like JMJ had a good month or two and a bad month or two. especially against lefties he hit all year, and with power and extra base hits. That is why he will not regress because he want to be a major league hitter not a AAAA hitter, and has proven that he listens and is willing to become a better hitter. That is why I think there should be more of a platoon in LF while Ryan is out and let JMJ play first a majority of the time best defensive 1B and hitter out of the bunch

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:09 PM on March 7, 2012

 

Posts: 0 schmenkman

Lots of imagined/inferred psychology here.

“he does not seem to be coachable” – based on what?

“And it is not like JMJ had a good month or two and a bad month or two” – he had two bad months, and then three good months. He has now had 3,000 professional at bats as an average hitter, and 180 ABs as a very good hitter. Hopefully it wasn’t a fluke.

 Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:53 PM on March 7, 2012

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2012 Phillies Salaries 

Charlie Manuel

$3 million

 

Cliff Lee

$21.5 million

 

Ryan Howard

$20 million

 

Roy Halladay

$20 million

 

Chase Utley

$15 million

 

Jonathan Papelbon

$11 million

 

Jimmy Rollins

$11 million

 

Cole Hamels

$9.5 million

 

Shane Victorino

$9.5 million

 

Joe Blanton

$8.5 million

 

Hunter Pence

$6.9 million

 

Placido Polanco

$6.25 million

 

Ty Wigginton

$4 million

 

Carlos Ruiz

$3.7 million

 

Jose Contreras

$2.5 million

 

Kyle Kendrick

$2.45 million

 

Jim Thome

$1.25 million

 

Laynce Nix

$1.15 million

 

Dontrelle Willis

$850,000

 

Brian Schneider

$800,000

 

John Mayberry

$414,000

 

Vance Worley

$405,000

 

Antonio Bastardo

$405,000

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