Posted by Corey Seidman, Mon, March 12, 2012 01:00 PM | Comments: 39
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Let’s talk Joe Blanton.
Coming off a 40-inning 2011 season filled with elbow problems, the 31-year-old righty had little trade value from November-to-February. His $8.5 million salary for 2012 appeared too pricey for a pitching-hungry team to bite on, given the health risk and his impending free agency. Why trade anything of value for someone who hadn’t yet conquered injury scares at the most important part of a pitcher’s body? Why take on salary?
That was then. This is March 12. Blanton has made clear that he feels healthy, and more importantly, he has had immediate Spring success after describing the comfort in his elbow. Blanton has pitched five scoreless innings in two starts, which most of us view as a minute sample in relatively meaningless games. But scouts don’t always see things that way.
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos — one of the game’s most creative minds — was reportedly at Blanton’s start last Saturday, and sources told FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi that Anthopoulos left directly after Blanton exited the game.
Are the Blue Jays interested in Blanton? It would make sense.
Toronto’s rotation is captained by Ricky Romero, but the 2nd-through-5th starters are all question marks. Brandon Morrow has exceptional stuff and has proven he can maintain high-strikeout numbers, but a piece of his game is missing. Brett Cecil has had an up-and-down career, experiencing early success then struggling and spending time in the minors. Dustin McGowan has made four starts since 2008. Henderson Alvarez is 21 years old with the chance to be a plus-control fourth starter.
The Blue Jays need a pitcher like Blanton, a steady, reliable mid-to-back end rotation pitcher. It’s cliche to use those adjectives for Blanton, but it’s what he is… a 2.0-to-2.5 win starter from whom you know what to expect from start to start. Blanton isn’t boom-bust, he’s a 6-7 inning, 3-run pitcher. Some teams need that more than others. Toronto is one of them.
What has transpired early in the Spring is a blessing for the Phillies. Blanton being healthy and looking productive gives Ruben Amaro choices and it returns the leverage of a Blanton trade to the Phillies’ side. A few months ago, we were looking at salary relief as the best-case scenario in a trade of Blanton. Now, with another solid exhibition outing, Blanton could fetch a decent prospect and $5-7 million of freed payroll.
David Murphy wrote Monday morning that Blanton is perceived to be available by folks in baseball. Should the Phillies listen? Should they actively shop Blanton? Or should they keep a healthy Kentucky Joe for themselves?
It obviously depends on the return, but I say trade him.
It really comes down to what the Phils value: trade deadline flexibility and the chance to upgrade offensively or a steady fourth starter for the course of a 162-game season in a tougher National League East.
Since the Phillies are playing for October more than May and June, that deadline flexibility is so much more important than the 1.5 wins a healthy Blanton would give them over Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro or Dave Bush. The ability to bring in a bat if the first base platoon fails or if John Mayberry can’t cut it every day in left field exceeds the need for a fourth starter, especially in the playoffs when that pitcher might be needed for a grand total of three starts.
This obviously assumes rotational health come playoff time, but what would you prefer in October, Blanton for those three starts and the same offense you see now, or Vance Worley in that role and the chance to bring in another hitter?
It’s far too early to speculate as to what bats would be available by the deadline, but thinking ahead wouldn’t hurt a team with such a high probability of making the playoffs.
The perception of Blanton has changed quickly. His $8.5 million salary went from a hindrance to an attractive one-year pricetag for a team looking to make a short-term upgrade.
The Phillies have a chance to act while Blanton’s stock is rising. The fans and front office say they want to replenish the minor-league cupboard… this is a way to do that. The prospect wouldn’t be a major difference-maker, but he could be a solid mid-level starting pitcher or infielder who could help two or three years from now.
But most importantly, it would give the Phillies the ability to transfer Blanton’s value to the offensive side of the ball come July.
Pin It 39 CommentsPosts: 0 Chris
Early spring training doesn’t really seem like the time to trade away pitching depth. I think Kyle Kendrick is a solid starter who could replace Blanton, but what if you trade Blanton, and Worley can’t cut it during the season? He’s been shaky this spring so far and you can’t really see him putting up numbers like he did last season, with him being horrible also a possibility. Joel Pineiro and Dave Bush as options for starting a game 1 out of 5 days seems almost laughable for a team trying to contend for a world series. With the NL East getting stronger, we’re going to need quality starts from pitchers 1-5, especially with our serious offensive woes. Adding offense at the deadline in July seems well and good, but is it realisitc? What prospects do we have left with serious value that the team would be willing to trade? Amaro, as you said seems bent on replenishing our already beleaguered minor leagues. I think trading Blanton would be quite short-sighted for a team already on the downward swing of their core players.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:38 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Kevin
Check out how Worley is throwing today… doesn’t seem all that shay to me.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:55 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Kevin
*shaky
Flag commentPosted: 01:55 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Dave P
Judging Worley based on his first start of the spring would be a little premature, to say the least. In his first outing, he allowed 5 hits, 2 runs, a walk, and threw a wild pitch. In his second outing, he allowed NO runs, NO hits and struck out 8 batters in 4 innings. He’s obviously shaking off rust, and figuring out how to work that new pitch.
He’s likely to have a fine sophomore season. Just wait until the regular season is here before you say what he’s doing one way or the other.
Flag commentPosted: 02:28 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
It is “perceived” that Blanton is available? Thats funny. I don’t think there is any “perceived” about it. IMO the Phils would trade him tomorrow for anyone who would take his money. Normally, I would say that Blanton at 8.5m is OK as your 4/5 starter. But its not “normally because Blanton is now a guy that has arm problems. He may be fine and he probably is, but based on the risk of reinjury (lets say %30?), I would take the $8.5m and the minor leaguer(s) another team would give you, slide Worley into the 4th slot, and try my luck with Kendrick/Piniero/Oswalt etc. in the 5.
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:47 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Kevin
I like the idea you’ve presented, but your logic appears to be a bit flawed.
Wouldn’t making a move at the trade deadline further diminish the prospect cupboard? You’d certainly be paying more in prospects for a hitter in July than you would be receiving back in a deal for Blanton in March. Especially if you’re talking about a hitter worth signing for contribution in August and beyond.
I agree that this kind of move would be advantageous for the Phillies, but mainly for payroll flexibility – not for restocking prospects.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:52 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 312 EricL
Depends on what the deadline acquisition is.
While Corey was talking about picking up an additional bat, you could theoretically sign a guy like Oswalt at the cost of no prospects, merely some cash.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:11 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 1378 Chuck A.
What’s that old phrase??? …. “Strike while the iron is hot.”
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:45 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Don M
The numbers I read were – the phillies were willing to eat $2 million (or $2.5 M) …. so for anyone to commit $6+ M to Blanton, I think they’re going to want to see him get through April, and May healthy …
and I think a team taking a $6 M man from the Phillies is basically the trade right there – salary relief and probably some low level prospects … so for $6 M i would rather have Blanton as my #4/-5 – unless they think Piniero, Kendrick, Worley can do well enough …
Travis D’Arnaud is likely off limits… I would love Anthony Gose, i’m assuming he’s off limits too though .. would Blanton + low prospect bring back a solid prospect??
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:32 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 626 Manny
If we only have to eat ~2 million, TRADE HIM.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:09 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Chris
Well this is a good predicament to have. Blanton, Worley and Kendrick have shown some good things this spring so far
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:16 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
Raj wants Travis back. The Phillies are thin in catching prospects. There closest prospect is at least 2 years away. I dont think RAJ values Ruiz as much we (well most of us) the fans value Ruiz. Its perceivable that they will let Ruiz walk after the end of the season. Then they could sign another Veteran catcher and have Travis as a backup and near future heir to Ruiz’s throne. Or they could pick up Ruiz option have him as a mentor to Travis who will be a possible candidate to replace him. Blanton and possibly another prospect might bring back Travis.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:48 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
I hate to tell you guys that but Travis is not coming back.
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:53 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
Possibly not Dipsy i was just trying to get into RAJ’ shead for a second.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:24 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 1378 Chuck A.
I seriously doubt if Ruben Amaro, Jr. reads this blog….and if he does, I hightly doubt he takes many of the comments very seriously. So I’m not really sure how you’re “getting into his head.”
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:02 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Stuart
I think he meant he was trying to think like he was inside his head. I come on this blog a lot and honestly Dipsy you always have something to say about everyone and everything and a lot of times. I think people disagree with you. Think about things you say and read peoples comments before attacking them.
Flag commentPosted: 11:22 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 Stuart
Chuck* not Dipsy, I was staring at Dipsy’s comment as I typed that.
Flag commentPosted: 11:24 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 1378 Chuck A.
Stuart, where did you come from? You say you come on this blog a lot but I can’t say that I’ve seen you much. Maybe you need to be a more active participant before you start leveling your own attacks at me or anyone else. Oh, and by the way, …..just so you know….I wasn’t attacking. Thanks and gave a great day!
Flag commentPosted: 12:44 PM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 BART SHART
I would trade Blanton plus another decent minor league pitcher for Travis and still eat half of Blanton’s salary. Blanton is worth more somewhere else.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:33 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
My thing is if they going to trade him away for nothing, as well as eat a portion of his salary, is it even worth it. There has to be a line somewhere when it comes to a point that they might as well keep him. Its no secret i bet that all the rest of the MLB GM’s know RAJ has been trying to dump Blanton since he became GM. Reminds of a situation i had once with a used car i couldnt sell.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 05:45 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 George
Maybe your assessment of Blanton has changed quickly, Corey, but I doubt it’s improved as much with cautious GMs. Two ST starts isn’t enough to claim 100% health, and given Joe’s performance the year before his injury (2010) I’m not so sure that teams would be all over even a healthy Blanton.
Toronto might be desperate, as well as maybe a couple of other teams, but I don’t see the Phils getting anything decent back, and will probably end up eating a lot more than $2million until later, when and IF Blanton proves he can still be effective.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:07 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 Corey Seidman
In response to George – If not a scout, but the GM of a team with no rooting interest in a game is at a ST game and leaves directly after a believed-to-be-available pitcher exits… that doesn’t represent a shift in the perception of Blanton?
In response to your second point, Blanton was a 2.0-win pitcher in 2010. Every team could use a 2.0 win pitcher, especially a team like the Blue Jays which has no idea what it can expect from its 2-5 starters.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:20 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 George
A tem GM will look, but that doesn’t mean he’ll buy. He may only be checking to see if a “shift in the perception” is even worth thinking about. He may only be thinking, “Nope. He’s not good for us.” There’s no way to know.
Also, as to your 2.0 win thing:
That’s one of the things I hate about those numbers. 2010 was a crap year for Blanton, what with his 5.00+ ERA, yet he’s somehow worth that much? Give me a break. Eating innings isn’t the only thing a pitcher needs to do, and I’m sure even the Blue Jays know that basic fact.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:48 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
Let’s all cool out on this Toronto GM coming to see Blanton so he can trade for him bit. Maybe he was coming to see Blanton (I hope he was) – maybe he wasn’t. We don’t even know how entirely accurate the story is – we weren’t there. I tend to believe Dave Murphy but, hey, how much does he really know? Further, I don’t know we why we’re even using the word “perception”- lets just leave it out. Joe Blanton IS available. Are we supposed to be playing coy or something?
I agree with George that if we are going to save just 2m we might as well just keep him. He’s a smidge above average pitcher who’s an injury risk. Maybe he’ll have a 10 win year. That said, I would gladly give him away to save 6m, though. That’s real money that can probably really help improve your team. It might get you Roy Oswalt…if you wanted him.
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 06:35 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 3 poconosms1
I would not trade him. Historically, pitchers coming off elbow surgery are better and stronger than before. Many argue that its due to the rigerous physical therapy. Better to keep him than risk on Oswalts bad back.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:13 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 George
Blanton didn’t have surgery, so what you’re saying means absolutely nothing.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:54 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 TheDipsy
Thats for Tommy John surgery. And it takes two years. Anything else?
The Dipsy
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:23 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 psujoe
I’d hold Blanton for now and see were everything sits in a few months unless I could get a half decent prospect with the salary relief. IF Blanton has returned to form he’ll be more valuable in a few months as injuries hit other clubs.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:25 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
“IF Blanton has returned to form he’ll be more valuable in a few months as injuries hit other clubs.”……………and maybe even our own Phillies…
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:02 PM on March 12, 2012Posts: 1169 Brooks
There is a question about trading Joe Blanton? Are you kidding me? If anybody thinks there is value in Joe, please, give him up – I’ll take a carton, no, empty carton of cigarettes – please!
Doesn’t anyone learn from mistakes made? Remember how valuable most of you thought having Joe was last year??
Posts: 221 Bruce
some fans here have short memories and can be quite fickle in their opinion of a player. I see Blanton recovering nicely from a injury riddled season of last year. He has in the past been a consistent 6-7 inning starter providing more quality starts than not. And as the saying goes..you can never have enough pitching especially with the inevitable injuries that can impact a team. Simply put, Keep Blanton in rotation.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:46 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 Mazinman
The question on wether to trade Blanton or not cannot has to be seen with what the Phils can do with those 6 million to make the ball club better. If the Phillies can get a good player for that amount then you seriously need to think about that trade. I gotta imagine that Oswalt would be the player they would target. I don’t see them adding another bench bat.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:03 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 1911 Lefty
Yes if they can, they should trade him. With what I’ve seen of the pitchers in S.T. games, that seems to be a strength. I think Scott Elarton could step into Kendrick’s role right now and we wouldn’t miss a beat. Having Kyle as a starter again makes sense due to his salary, and he is not that far a drop off from Blanton really, is he? And the young guns look great as well. Honestly I don’t even know who they’d cut if Blanton stayed.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 07:40 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 1378 Chuck A.
Whoa….hold on for a minute. Let’s not let one solid performance from Scott Elarton get us too excited just yet. Maybe he’s got it but I think that we need to see more in order to make that determination. And is making KK solely a starter the best role for him? He seemed to excel last year being that multi-purpose pitcher. Making him part of the rotation may not be the best thing either.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 08:06 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 1911 Lefty
I’ve seen two solid outings from him, and I understand that you can’t bank on what you see in S.T., but that’s not the point.
What I meant is it looks like the team’s deepest position, their strength- seems to be pitching no matter who it is that takes that role if they trade Blanton and move KK to the starter role. Qualls, D-Train, Pineiro, etc. or one of the young guys. (Diekman looked really good the other day)
I was surprised and impressed by Elarton though, that would be quite a comeback story if he somehow made it.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:28 PM on March 13, 2012Posts: 574 betasigmadeltashag
If you are going to have to pay for him why trade him if you can not get something in return. In the last 3 years how many starting pitchers have th Phillies used, you can never have enough pitching depth. If you can find someone to take him and his salary and give you something then you trade him, but you do not simply trade him away for nothing to save 3-4 million. I do not get trade him and pay him for nothing. The guy when healthy gives you decent starts, and yes when healthy I would rather see Joe on the mound then KK. Especially at this point if someone gives up something for Joe you trade him but if they are not going to give you something worth something than keep him.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:38 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 0 George
It’s been known since the Halladay acquisition that Blanton is available for the right price. I think the fact that he’s still with the Phils shows that “perceptions” about him haven’t changed drastically and probably won’t.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 09:58 AM on March 13, 2012Posts: 570 The Original Chuck P
I would gladly pay you Tuesday for a Cheeseburger Joe today.
Joe Blanton is… whatever. You’re not getting much back in return. It’s basically a salary dump and you’re dumping a guy that has proven he can be somewhat effective. The term “innings eater” is one that denotes a subpar starter who has the ability to keep his team in the game most of the time… next to that term, you’d see a picture of Cheeseburger Joe. He’s fine for this team…as a 5th starter, he’ll be just fine. I’d love to see us get a young arm with some upside in return. Even mentioning Travid D’Arnaud or Anthony Gose is laughable. At best, you’re probably talking about a mid-tier prospect and some salary relief in return for Joe’s services. He can be very valuable for a team like Toronto that has a lot of young pitchers with innings limits… Joe will give you innings, assuming he’s healthy. Right now, he appears to be healthy but other GM’s won’t be willing to overlook that risk at this point (he pitched in 11 games last year). If Joe pitches well in April/May, the number of potential suitors could expand but unfortunately, I don’t think his value will ever be higher than what it is… it’s what it is, brother. Do you do something to free-up salary in case you need to make a move at the deadline or do you stick with Joe to help keep our bullpen fresh (and as a quasi insurance policy in case a starter gets hurt, God forbid)?
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:15 PM on March 13, 2012Posts: 570 The Original Chuck P
By the way… my previous comment echos everything that Corey said in this post.
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