Posted by Jonathan Nisula, Wed, January 25, 2012 09:20 AM | Comments: 20
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts, Raising Questions
The Phillies have three aces at the top of the rotation, and a guy who is coming off a great first year in the bigs in Vance Worley as the 4th, or maybe 5th, starter. Joe Blanton is expected to be the final player in the rotation, but what if isn’t ready?
In his shortened 2011 season, Blanton posted the highest ERA of his career, the 2nd highest WHIP of his career, and the most hits-per-nine innings of his career. Conversely, he posted the highest strikeout-per-nine and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. What this tells me is that his pitches were around the plate, but were not good enough to get guys out consistently. Maybe he had a flat fastball or his curves weren’t breaking the way they used to. Regardless, if his elbow is the cause of these numbers, and this downward trend continues, he will not last very long in the rotation.
However, if his elbow is fine, and he reduces the number of hits he gives up, he would undoubtedly be the selection for 5th starter. Its just a matter of seeing where he’s at in Spring Training.
But let’s pretend for a minute that Blanton shows up at Spring Training with an 85 MPH fastball and a curveball that just spins with no break. Or maybe with no control at all. Who’s the next choice? Surely, after his success in 2011, Kyle Kendrick might be it, and it would be a good one. Last year, he made spot starts and assumed the role of long man out of the bullpen. He posted career bests in many areas, including ERA, WHIP, hits per nine innings, and strikeout to walk ratio. What’s more surprising it that his better numbers came as a starter. He had a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, a higher K/9 and a higher K/BB ratio when he was the starter.
In fact, his 2011 numbers rival some of Blanton’s career bests. Now, as I said above, if its a healthy Blanton vs Kendrick, Blanton will win that battle. But if Big Joe isn’t healthy, Kendrick isn’t a bad choice at all.
Of course, behind Kendrick, the Phillies have guys like Joel Pineiro and Pat Misch who can come in and start games, but I don’t think they will be seriously considered for the 5th spot in the rotation.
A guy who could really challenge Kendrick, should Blanton not be ready, is Austin Hyatt. (Sidenote: Don’t Google just his name. You’ll get a bunch of websites that want you to book a hotel in Texas). Hyatt is a 25-year-old righty who has spent three seasons in the minors. In those three seasons, he’s posted a 3.2o ERA, to go along with an 11.0 K/9 and a 4.12 K/BB. He was an All Star in the Eastern League in 2011, going 12-6 with a 3.85 ERA for the Reading Phillies. In an interview with our own Jay Floyd earlier this month, he said that he has an invite to Spring Training.
Again, Blanton is the clear choice, but isn’t so clear because of his recent injury. If he isn’t ready, it could be a battle between Hyatt and Kendrick, with Pineiro thrown in. Hyatt will probably land in AAA, but anything can happen in Spring Training, which is just about a month away.
Who are you pulling for in the race for the 5th starter spot?
20 CommentsPosts: 1384 Chuck A.
Who am I pulling for? …. I really don’t care. ANY of these guys is fine if they are healthy and can adequately hold down the spot. It’s the 5th starter so we can’t expect Cy Young-caliber stuff anyway.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:27 AM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Dave L
I agree, It doesn’t matter if it’s Blanton or Kendrick or the new guy. Even when Blanton is healthy, he will give up plenty of runs as would Kendrick or the new guy. Hopefully, we can score some runs this year and it won’t matter that much. In my opinion they all stink and you can throw Worley in that mix as well. I think we’ll get the second half Worley all year this year. I’m not impressed even a little once you get past the first three in the rotation. Our bullpen will be plenty busy this year.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:21 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 265 EricL
Honestly I think Pinero might have more to offer than Kendrick, plus you would continue to get to use Kendrick out of the pen in long-man situations.
Of course, it’s likely that the Phils would make their decision not on the actual talent level of the player but on the basis of who has the larger paycheck, in which case it would almost undoubtedly be Kendrick.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 10:57 AM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 bacardipr05
It would go to Kendrick, then the Phils will pick up another of their famous reclamation projects. In the slim chance that Dubee can turn him around to the Stud that he used to be. Its their pattern its what they have been doing for the past few years. Yes i know all teams pick up has beens or use to be, or almost was players. I hope Blanton bounces back and at least earns some of his money.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 11:52 AM on January 25, 2012Posts: 1384 Chuck A.
“Famous reclamation projects” ?? There have been lots of these that have actually worked out. Jayson Werth comes to mind (I know….he’s a position player…but still…) and I’m fairly certain he played a big role in the Phillies’ success while he was here.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:23 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 606 Manny
I think Kendrick is the best fallback plan if Blanton isn’t ready. Pineiro could also be a fine alternative but shouldn’t get the spot if Kendrick is doing a good job. Hyatt, highly doubt it… but would be a pleasant surprise if he tears it up in ST!
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:02 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 1297 Pat Gallen
Really want to see one of those youngsters make a huge push. Hyatt, May, Colvin, etc…Make them think twice about it. You’ve gotta hope 2 of those guys really makes a jump soon.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:24 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 606 Manny
I agree… I’m all for the baby aces! But they’ll probably enter the conversation no sooner than 2013…
Flag commentPosted: 12:36 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Chris
May and Colvin will not be ready to contribute this year in the bigs. Heck Colvin just had a not so great year in Clearwater and will be repeating this year. Hyatt is a possibility but I feel like Kendrick does a good enough job that it’s a moot point.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:32 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 582 betasigmadeltashag
First I think part of Big Joes numbers being what they were is that he has been a notorious bad spring pitcher and more of a second half pitcher.
Now if he is not healthy enough to pitch come this spring, I would not mind seeing KK as the the number five starter. As Long as Worley does not go through a big slump, I would not mind a rotation of Doc, Cole, Cliff. Worley, and KK
Posts: 32 Tom
I like the idea of Kendrick staying in the bullpen and being a spot starter if needed. He is more versatile than the others and has already performed that role adequately! I really like the pick up of Pineiro and would prefer to see him have the shot if he performs well in Spring Training! He didn’t pitch well last year for the Angels, but a return to the NL should help him! Plus, he has become a sinker ball, ground ball pitcher which is good for CBP.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 12:44 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 1939 Lefty
I too like the idea of going young and hopefully getting a nice first season like Worley, and Happ gave the team. But after listening to Charlie yesterday, I have a sneaking suspicion he and Dubee might give D. Willis a shot at it if needed. Maybe I’m reading it wrong, check it out for yourselves and let me know.
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/show/anthony-gargano-glen-macnow/#
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:11 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Mazinman
I am not counting much on Blanton mostly because I believe that if he can reestablish himself as healthy in Spring Training the Phillies will look to trade him. I don’t really have a preference on who could replace him as long as they do a good job.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:32 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
Kendrick is the obvious first choice but he had an unusually lucky BABIP last year and we can’t count on that returning. He is a 4.2-4.5 ERA guy which is fine for #5 but don’t expect below 4 ERA again this year. Beyond that we are stocked with a bunch of “possibles.”
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 01:55 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Ray
I’m pulling to bring back Oswalt hes still our best choice but they won’t
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 02:18 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Philly Geoff
Is there any chance they bring back Oswalt? How much of their budget do they have left now that Cordero is out?
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 03:57 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Chris
Well Roy wants a bit too much for their payroll.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:09 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 Dave P
Good read.
Though I have to poke fun at the line “Blanton is the clear choice, but isn’t so clear because of his recent injury.” :)
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:11 PM on January 25, 2012Posts: 0 lahs2019
The D-Train will probably be iin the mix as well. Especially if the Phils pursue another lefty bullpen arm, Willis will be in the mix as a swing starter at the least. If he has a strong spring, who knows, he might compete for the rotation.
Reply to this PostFlag commentPosted: 04:45 PM on January 26, 2012Posts: 265 EricL
This would be a mistake unless the team he is facing has no right handed batters.
Or, in other words, it would be a mistake.
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Fare thee well, might warrior….fare thee well.
You mean we get to hit off that tomato can this year?
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Good luck to Brad Lidge. His 2008 season will always be held in high esteem.
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2008 seems like such a long time ago. It IS slipping away, for sure. Hell, even Eric Bruntlett is gone, too! I can still see Lidge dropping to the ground, Chooch running towards the mound, all while listening to Harry the K make that magical call… Anyway, I wish Lidge well in DC. This move [...]
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schmenkman- that was funny! And yes Chuck, we will all hope for the best. I will still be critical in a rational manner when I see fit, but I have never booed a Phillies player. Therefore, apocryphal or not, I won’t lose my eye sight.
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2012 Phillies SalariesCharlie Manuel
$3 million
Cliff Lee
$21.5 million
Ryan Howard
$20 million
Roy Halladay
$20 million
Chase Utley
$15 million
Jonathan Papelbon
$11 million
Jimmy Rollins
$11 million
Cole Hamels
$9.5 million
Shane Victorino
$9.5 million
Joe Blanton
$8.5 million
Hunter Pence
$6.9 million
Placido Polanco
$6.25 million
Ty Wigginton
$4 million
Carlos Ruiz
$3.7 million
Jose Contreras
$2.5 million
Kyle Kendrick
$2.45 million
Jim Thome
$1.25 million
Laynce Nix
$1.15 million
Dontrelle Willis
$850,000
Brian Schneider
$800,000
Wilson Valdez
$560,000
John Mayberry
$414,000
Vance Worley
$405,000
Antonio Bastardo
$405,000
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